Is Tom Brady toast? Will Lamar Jackson run a lot? Will Justin Tucker kick a lot?
Here are my three favorite prop bets for Thursday Night Football:
Tom Brady under 285.5 pass yards (-120 at BetMGM)
There is the possibility that Tom Brady bounces back like The Undertaker in this game, proving that worries of his demise were again premature. But there is the reality that he’s 45 years old and clearly going through a lot in his personal life.
Brady is only averaging 6.6 yards per pass attempt this season and the Ravens have a good defense. Tampa Bay has been very pass-heavy on the season but perhaps they switch things up after a horrific offensive showing against the Panthers.
The Buccaneers are slight favorites in this game, so Brady likely won’t need to throw a ton because of game script, and the Ravens always run a bunch, which will shorten the game. Brady is more likely than not going to have a few more big games this season, but I don’t see it happening tonight.
Lamar Jackson over 9.5 rush attempts (-130 at DraftKings)
The Buccaneers can be a tough team to run against using a traditional strategy, because Vita Vea and speedy linebackers plug a lot of holes. But the Ravens have the benefit of the quarterback run game, and I think Jackson will be involved heavily on Thursday.
He is averaging 9.4 carries per game this season and has reached 10 or more in four of the seven contests. The Bucs are also pretty good against the pass, which means Jackson could scramble on dropbacks as well. While his aerial numbers can be up and down, there is no questioning Jackson’s potency with his legs and I think that will be on full display in this one.
Additionally, if the Ravens kneel out the game at the end, those go down as Jackson rushing attempts.
Justin Tucker under 7.5 points (+100)
This is an underdog bet that has enough potential for me to jump on. Tucker remains the best kicker in the NFL and has hit on 9-of-10 field goal attempts in just the past three games alone, so it’s a risk, of course.
However, coach John Harbaugh remains a very aggressive coach, and I think that cranks up another notch against upper-tier opponents. That could mean plenty of going for it on fourth down and trying two-point conversions, which limits Tucker’s upside.
I could see multiple avenues for this to hit. There is the possibility that the Ravens score a few touchdowns, which could keep Tucker to one field goal or fewer. And even if he kicks a pair, it could also come up with just one extra point if a two-point conversion attempt is thrown in.
I like the odds on this to give it a shot.
Last Week’s Record: 5-4
Overall: 39-32
