2022 Week 7 Thursday Night Football Betting: A.J. Green Receiving Yards and Two Other Props for Cardinals-Saints

A decent contingent of Cardinals fans read these so I decided Christmas would come early in the form of two prop bets articles for Thursday Night Football.

The first was squarely centered on DeAndre Hopkins, who makes his season debut tonight. Here are three more for the faceoff with the Saints.

Cardinals WR A.J. Green under 24.5 receiving yards (-115 at BetMGM)

A.J. Green had a nice game last week, catching 10 passes for 56 yards. Oh, wait. That’s his line for the entire season through five games, which is incomprehensibly bad.

Green has been on the field for 69% or more of the offensive snaps in four of the five contests, so it’s not a playing time issue, it’s just a plain lack of production.

Green is averaging 5.6 yards per catch, 2.5 yards per target and 11.2 receiving yards per game, which makes him the worst value in the NFL this side of Kenny Golladay.

Steve Keim gave A.J. Green $3.5M this offseason. His numbers through five games:

Snaps: 249
Catches: 10
Yards: 56
TD: 0

— Kyle Odegard (@Kyle_Odegard) October 17, 2022

He would have been put out to pasture this week if Hollywood Brown was still healthy, but Green will likely get one more game of decent playing time before Robby Anderson takes over next week.

No matter how much he plays, the under is the easy call based on the five games worth of data. Green cannot separate and has multiple drops and/or catches where he landed with one foot out of bounds. Quarterback Kyler Murray certainly will trust DeAndre Hopkins, Zach Ertz and Rondale Moore more than Green when given the option.

And then there are a couple factors that could limit Green’s playing time in this one. Anderson doesn’t know the playbook but could see the field sparingly, and when he’s out there, those could be the plays designed for the receiver opposite Hopkins, not when Green is playing.

Then there is this wonderful little nugget: Greg Dortch, who leads the NFL in separation but has languished on the bench since Moore’s return, Tweeted a smiley face on Thursday morning.

🙂

— Greg Dortch (@_GDortch) October 20, 2022

Maybe he had a good breakfast that prompted the emoji, but maybe he will be a bigger part of the game plan. If so, Green could be the odd man out.

No matter how you slice it, the under is the call.

Cardinals LB Zaven Collins over 6.5 tackles and assists (+110 at DraftKings)

After a rookie season riding the pine, Collins is starting to put it together. He had a career day against the Seahawks, registering eight tackles and a pair of sacks.

Collins is playing 100% of the defensive snaps and that won’t change in this one. He is the middle linebacker, which keeps him involved in every run play and the short passes.

The Saints have one of the worst quarterbacks in the NFL with Andy Dalton at the helm, and thus they will be running the ball a lot and trying low-risk throws. All of this should keep Collins heavily involved in the action.

He has surpassed 6.5 combined tackles in four of the six games this year and I think it’s a great underdog play.

Cardinals QB Kyler Murray -35.5 passing yards vs. Andy Dalton (-115 at DraftKings)

So for this to hit, Murray needs to throw for 36 more yards than Dalton in the game. The Cardinals are favored, and there is always the risk of them going up big and then shutting down the aerial attack while New Orleans bombs away.

However, the spread is only 2.5 points, and if the game stays tight or New Orleans holds a late lead, that won’t be an issue.

I'm 5-1 against the spread on Cardinals games this year.

Check out my prediction for tonight.https://t.co/MrDx326oHz

— Kyle Odegard (@Kyle_Odegard) October 20, 2022

If we project a tight game, I can’t see the Saints relying on Dalton a ton. 

The running game has been very good for the Saints, and even when the team put up 39 points two weeks ago against the Seahawks, Dalton attempted only 24 passes for 187 yards. Taysom Hill is also a factor, as he will take over at quarterback in specific situations. And then there is the Jameis Winston element. Dalton is expected to start, but if he struggles, Winston could be called upon.

Murray is obviously the guy for Arizona, and the return of DeAndre Hopkins should help boost his efficiency through the air. If running back James Conner doesn’t play, that’s more reason to throw the ball.

Final point: The Cardinals’ pass defense was wretched through the first three weeks, but some of the young players are starting to come on in the pass rush department, while the trio of Budda Baker, Jalen Thompson and Byron Murphy is keeping things together on the back end.

I think Murray outpaces Dalton in passing yardage quite easily in this contest.

Last week’s prop bets record: 5-7
Overall: 36-28