It’s time for another Sunday of prop bet action. Here are three picks that stand out to me heading into Week 7:
Steelers RB Najee Harris over 13.5 receiving yards (-115 at DraftKings)
It’s been an absolutely dreadful football season for Harris. He is averaging 3.2 yards per carry and 4.7 yards per reception. The 2021 first-round pick is being used plenty but has been shut down by several different defenses.
With that being said, his receiving yardage number is low enough now that the over is an enticing play. Harris is only averaging 11.8 receiving yards per game this season, but the number is 23.4 if we include his rookie season.
The Steelers are 7.5-point underdogs against the Dolphins on Sunday night, and if the margin ends up around there, it means Pittsburgh will need to be throwing late in the contest to have a chance at catching up. Harris has been targeted seven times over the past two games with Kenny Pickett at quarterback, and I think he gets a solid number of checkdowns and/or screens against Miami.
Harris should be on the field a bunch, per usual, and even if the struggles continue, he should get enough passing game work for this over to hit.
49ers WR Deebo Samuel under 16.5 rush yards (-114 at FanDuel)
Samuel has only carried the ball two times apiece in each of the past three games and hasn’t surpassed 15 yards in any of the past four. Jeff Wilson is averaging 4.9 yards per carry and is deserving of the work, as San Francisco can just use Samuel at wide receiver.
And then there is the Christian McCaffrey factor. He was added via trade on Thursday night, which isn’t much time to get ready for this contest against the Chiefs, but there is no doubt the team would like him on the field for at least some of the snaps.
Running back is one of the easier positions to acclimate quickly, as the 49ers can tell him which way to carry the ball before McCaffrey allows his instincts to take over.
I have a feeling McCaffrey will get some run, while Wilson can be used heavily since he will revert to backup status after this game. Even if Samuel gets three carries, the under could hit, and he may get fewer.
Packers QB Aaron Rodgers over 228.5 pass yards (-115 at DraftKings)
We are at six games and counting of a pedestrian Aaron Rodgers season, but I still think there is some positive regression on the way. This passing yardage total is down in the range of Taylor Heinecke, Daniel Jones and Andy Dalton, and I’m jumping on it.
Rodgers is only averaging 6.7 yards per pass attempt this season, which is on pace for a career-low. However, if he can get closer to the 7.5 range it would only take 31 pass attempts to surpass this number. Rodgers has attempted 34 passes or more in all but one game this season, which is why I like the over here.
The Packers are favored against the Commanders, but not so overwhelmingly that Rodgers can pack it in for the second half.
