The Week 6 football slate comes to a close on Monday night with a showdown between the Los Angeles Chargers and Denver Broncos.
Before the season, this looked like a prime matchup between a pair of star quarterbacks. Can Russell Wilson make it so? We’ll find out soon.
Here are my three favorite prop bets:
Broncos QB Russell Wilson over 19.5 completions (-120 at BetMGM)
It’s been a bad season for Mr. Unlimited, whose success in Denver has, in fact, been quite limited. But I’m betting on a bounceback in this one. Wilson’s track record infers that he should improve at some point, and there should be decent volume in this game if the Broncos are trailing late, as expected.
Wilson has completed only 59.4% of his passes this season. He’s never been below 60% for a season and has a career mark of 64.8%. His projected pass attempts sits at 32.5, and if he ends up in that range, there should be enough accuracy for Wilson to reach 20 completions. Despite the slow start, he has gotten to that number in three of five games this year.
Chargers WR Mike Williams under 69.5 receiving yards (-120 at BetMGM)
The Broncos have the No. 2 ranked defense in Football Outsiders’ DVOA, so the Chargers are likely to have a tougher slog than usual in this one. Furthermore, Williams seems likely to face star cornerback Patrick Surtain in many situations.
Quarterback Justin Herbert could target him less because of that matchup, and the throws that do head that way will have a lower chance of succeeding. Williams is a big-play presence and one deep ball could get him on track to hit the over on this number, but it feels high to me.
Total Punts Under 7.5 (-110 at DraftKings)
My friends, we are back on the total punts train. I took the over for Broncos-Colts and that was a sweat-free win. This time around, I’m taking the underdog again, but it’s the under.
The Chargers are my main reason for this. The offense can move the ball with Herbert at the helm and coach Brandon Staley is known for his aggressiveness on fourth downs. If there is a healthy enough combination of touchdowns, field goals and fourth-down tries, I could see Los Angeles only punting three times in this game.
If that happens, the Broncos can punt it four times and we still come out ahead. As mentioned earlier, I think Wilson finally bounces back with a decent performance. And if Denver is trailing late in this contest, coach Nathaniel Hackett will have no choice but to be aggressive and eschew the punts.
I’m 3-for-3 on kicker/punter props so far this year, so let’s keep it rolling.
This week’s prop bets record: 4-5
Overall: 35-26
