Another Sunday of action is almost upon us. I took a look at the prop bets offered throughout the Week 4 matchups and landed on my three favorite.
Here they are:
Ravens RB J.K. Dobbins over 35.5 rush yards (-114)
The Ravens’ running back played his first game of the year in Week 3 following a recovery from a torn ACL. Dobbins carried the ball seven times for 23 yards but missed some time with a chest injury.
He was a full participant in practice on Thursday so should be good to go on Sunday. The Ravens’ running backs have struggled to run the ball this season, as quarterback Lamar Jackson has done almost all of the heavy lifting.
But Dobbins is much better than the options that were used previously, and he should see a solid workload in this one. I think Dobbins will average at least four yards per carry in this contest and should reach 40 rush yards.
Seahawks QB Geno Smith under 250.5 passing yards (-115)
Seattle has opened up the offense more than I expected in the earlygoing, and the Detroit defense has not been very good this year. Even so, there is a ceiling on Smith that has me questioning if he can reach this pretty inflated total.
DK Metcalf and Tyler Lockett will help the cause, but Lions cornerback Jeff Okudah is finally beginning to put it all together, which will make it tougher on one of them.
Detroit won’t have Amon-Ra St. Brown and likely D’Andre Swift offensively, which could help keep the game close from start to finish. That’s a good thing for the under because Smith won’t be in chuck-it mode late.
Patrick Mahomes under 25.5 completions (+100)
The Buccaneers’ defense has been fierce to start the season. I get it, we are talking about Patrick Mahomes here, but this completion total is quite high.
There are some scenarios in which Tampa chooses to sell out to stop the run and force the opposing quarterback to beat them, but I don’t really foresee that strategy against Mahomes.
I believe the Buccaneers will give up some stuff on the ground to force longer drives, where sacks and turnovers can come into play.
This game is basically a pick ‘em, so there is the added bonus of the Chiefs running the ball late if they have the lead.
All in all, even if Mahomes is effective in this titanic showdown, I don’t think he racks up 26 completions or more.
This week’s prop bets record: 1-2
Overall: 17-14
