Another Sunday of football is around the corner, which means it’s time for some more prop bet action.
Here are three player wagers I like for Week 3:
Bengals WR Ja’Marr Chase over 73.5 receiving yards (-127)
If there is one thing abundantly clear about the Bengals’ passing game, it is this: Joe Burrow wants to get Ja’Marr Chase the ball. A bunch.
Some quarterbacks methodically go through their progressions with little concern for the talent level of each receiver, but that doesn’t seem to be Burrow’s style. He knows Chase is one of the most physically gifted players in the NFL and wants to put the ball in his hands.
Chase has 25 targets through two games, which has resulted in 15 catches for 183 yards and a touchdown. He has a catch percentage of 62.7 in his career and brims with big-play ability, so 9-to-10 targets in this one would make me feel good about the over hitting.
Burrow has an over/under attempts projection of 34.5, and Chase should be the main target once again. The Jets gave up nine catches for 101 yards and a touchdown to Amari Cooper last time out, and Chase has the ability to do something similar.
Dolphins QB Tua Tagovailoa over 255.5 passing yards (-108)
The Miami passing game against the Buffalo defense is an interesting matchup. Tagovailoa exploded last week with 469 yards and six touchdowns against the Ravens. He’s not going to come close to that, obviously, but this yardage total looks low.
No one is questioning a Buffalo pass defense that has made life absolutely miserable for Matthew Stafford and Ryan Tannehill in the first two weeks. However, Bills safety Micah Hyde and defensive tackle Jordan Phillips won’t play due to injury, while No. 1 cornerback Tre’Davious White remains out.
The Dolphins have two of the most explosive wide receivers in the NFL, and when Tyreek Hill is on one side and Jaylen Waddle on the other, it really puts the defense in a bind. I think Tagovailoa finds moderate success throwing the ball early in this game, and then racks up the yards late when the Dolphins are forced to throw in a comeback attempt.
Bears QB Justin Fields under 176.5 passing yards (-114)
Chicago has not shown a penchant for giving Justin Fields the freedom to throw the ball around the yard, as he’s attempted only 28 passes in two games.
Last week against the Packers, he was just 7-of-11 for 70 yards. Fields dropped back 19 times in that one, so the 11 pass attempts stat is a little misleading, but sacks and scrambles are going to continue to be part of the equation moving forward.
Fields will likely set a season-high for attempts against the Texans, but I think this yardage total is still too high. This game could be a low-scoring slugfest, and Chicago is a small favorite, which means it could be running the ball in the fourth quarter.
Until this new coaching staff proves it is willing to give Fields more freedom, I’ll stay on the under.
This week’s prop bets record: 2-1
Overall: 11-8
