It’s the final week of the regular season, which is the last time we can make money betting against the Jaguars. Truly a sad day.
While there is plenty of playoff football coming up, these are my predictions for the final full slate of action. Odds courtesy of DraftKings on January 7.
Chiefs (-10.5) at Broncos
The pick: Broncos (-110) to cover
The reason: Denver is getting a heap of important players off the COVID list for this game, and the spread seems high. Even though Drew Lock is maddeningly inconsistent, the Kansas City defense had issues last week against the Bengals and could be susceptible to some big plays. The Broncos should be able to run the ball enough to shorten this game and cover.
Cowboys (-4) at Eagles
The pick: Eagles (+160) on the moneyline
The reason: Both sides are dealing with COVID issues and there isn’t a bunch of motivation on either side, as the Cowboys have clinched the division and the Eagles have secured a playoff spot. Dallas is the better team when both teams are healthy and motivated, but this could be a weird one, so take the underdog.
Cowboys ruled out CB Trevon Diggs (illness), S Jayron Kearse (hamstring) and RB Tony Pollard (foot) for Saturday night’s game vs. the Eagles.
— Adam Schefter (@AdamSchefter) January 7, 2022
Colts (-15) at Jaguars
The pick: Colts to cover the spread
The reason: Indianapolis needs to win this game to clinch a playoff berth, so there should be a laser focus. The Jaguars, meanwhile, will have fans wearing clown outfits in the stands, in hopes that owner Shad Khan fires GM Trent Baalke. Yes, that’s where the Jacksonville franchise currently sits. Indy should win easily.
Titans (-10) at Texans
The pick: Texans QB Davis Mills (-130) under 21.5 completions
The reason: This basically comes down to whether Houston can keep this game mildly competitive. Even though the Titans are on track to finish as the No. 1 seed in the AFC, Houston should be able to stick around long enough to keep the game script from going extremely pass-heavy until late. Mills has a 66.5 completion percentage on the year but the Titans should be able to force him to miss more throws than that on Sunday, resulting in the under hitting.
Packers (-3.5) at Lions
The pick: Scoring total (-110) under 45
The reason: This has the feel of a preseason game. Aaron Rodgers is going to start for the Packers, but it’s unknown how long he will play. If Rodgers is out of the game after a half, expect the Green Bay offensive rhythm to come to a halt after intermission. The under is the logical play.
Bengals (+6) at Browns
The pick: Browns (-110) to cover the spread
The reason: Cleveland’s major issue this season has been erratic quarterback play by Baker Mayfield. The Browns have generally had the inferior signal-caller this season, but that won’t be the case in this battle of backups. Veteran Case Keenum is a much better player than Cincinnati’s Brandon Allen, who is filling in for Joe Burrow. The Browns should win this one going away.
Big Brandon Allen vs. Case Keenum showdown slated for Sunday. https://t.co/iRXQVTPkIQ
— Albert Breer (@AlbertBreer) January 5, 2022
Steelers (+3.5) at Ravens
The pick: QB Ben Roethlisberger (-115) over 232.5 passing yards
The reason: This is likely the final game of Ben Roethlisberger’s career, and he’s not going to go out handing the ball off. The Steelers’ quarterback threw the ball 46 times for only 123 yards against the Browns, and while his yards per attempt is not going to be elite in this game, if it improves to below average then there should be enough volume to reach 233 yards.
Bears (+5.5) at VIkings
The pick: Vikings (-110) to cover
The reason: Two embattled coaches are facing off in this game. Matt Nagy will likely be fired by the Bears on Monday, while Mike Zimmer may not last with Minnesota, either. The Vikings are eliminated from the postseason, but have enough star power to play one final crisp game and beat an inferior Bears team rather easily.
Washington (-7) at Giants
The pick: Washington (-110) under 22.5 points
The reason: The Giants are a trainwreck on offense and are limping to the season’s finish line. However, they may get there without giving up 23 or more points in this one. New York ran the ball a bunch in their Week 17 loss to the Bears and will likely follow that formula without Daniel Jones at quarterback. Washington should win this game but points will be few and far between on both sides.
49ers (+4.5) at Rams
The pick: Cooper Kupp (-115) under 115.5 receiving yards
The reason: Kupp needs 136 yards to break Calvin Johnson’s record for receiving yards in a season. The problem is that Los Angeles needs to win the game, not go record-chasing, in order to claim the NFC West. San Francisco should be able to keep this one close, which means Los Angeles won’t be able to feed Kupp late in the game in search of the record. The ‘under’ is the better play.
Seahawks (+6.5) at Cardinals
The pick: Seahawks (-110) to cover the spread
The reason: This pick felt a lot better when the spread was a touchdown, but Seattle is still the play. Quarterback Russell Wilson looks healthy again and running back Rashaad Penny has carved up defenses of late. The Cardinals have the better defense, but this one will likely stay close all day long as two elite quarterbacks go toe-to-toe. It could be Wilson’s swan song in Seattle, and if so, he will want to go out with a solid performance.
My five best trade fits for Russell Wilson:
5. Dolphins
4. Giants
3. Browns
2. Saints
1. BroncosI mocked up a hypothetical trade for each landing spot ⬇️https://t.co/btKPwCM3JS
— Kyle Odegard (@Kyle_Odegard) January 7, 2022
Panthers (+8) at Buccaneers
The pick: TE Rob Gronkowski (+110) under 64.5 receiving yards
The reason: Tampa Bay won’t have Chris Godwin or Antonio Brown for the rest of the season, so the conventional wisdom is that Gronkowski will have an even bigger role this week. However, he has seen eight or more targets in eight games this season and only reached 65 receiving yards in four of them. Tom Brady is still going to target his receivers plenty, and at these odds, the under is the smart play.
Patriots (-6) at Dolphins
The pick: Patriots (-110) to cover the spread
The reason: New England has shown a consistent ability to dominate against inferior competition, and this game qualifies. The Dolphins have a solid record but they are not on the same level of the Patriots. Quarterback Tua Tagovailoa could struggle again, which would allow for plenty of quarterback speculation in Miami this offseason. More immediately, it means the Pats will cover.
Jets (+16.5) at Bills
The pick: Bills QB Josh Allen (-115) over 248.5 passing yards
The reason: Allen had a dreadful game against the Falcons last week, completing 11-of-26 passes for 120 yards with no touchdowns and three interceptions. The passing attack needs to be in a groove heading into the playoffs, and this is a good game to get back on track. Allen should hit on his fair share of big pass plays, and even if Buffalo takes its foot off the gas late, the over is the right pick.
Saints (-3.5) at Falcons
The pick: Saints (-110) to cover the spread
The reason: New Orleans has a great defense, and Taysom Hill has actually done a decent job since taking over as the starting quarterback. The Falcons do not have enough talent to hang with the Saints all game. Look for New Orleans to put this away in the fourth quarter and also cover.
Chargers (-3) at Raiders
The pick: Raiders QB Derek Carr (-115) over 0.5 interceptions
The reason: Carr has 14 interceptions in 16 games this season, including one in the first matchup with Los Angeles. Each side is expected to throw the ball plenty in this one, and the Chargers’ defensive scheme allows for plenty of eyes on the quarterback. The Raiders are likely to fall behind at some point, and Carr will have to take some chances. One of his passes will end up in the hands of a Chargers defender.
