Happy holidays, everyone.
I’m here to spread some cheer, and hopefully some sage betting advice, beginning with Thursday Night Football.
Here are three prop bets I’m gambling on during Jets-Jaguars, led by a familiar face:
Jaguars WR Christian Kirk over 49.5 receiving yards (-110 at BetMGM)
The Jaguars were ridiculed for giving Kirk a lucrative contract in free agency but he’s lived up to it in 2022. Kirk has 73 catches for 966 yards and seven touchdowns this season and needs just 34 yards to surpass 1,000 for the first time in his career.
The Jets have a stingy pass defense, but I’m expecting Sauce Gardner to play outside cornerback in this one, which is a benefit for Kirk in the slot. Nickel cornerback Michael Carter II has only given up 350 passing yards this season so it’s not an easy matchup, but Kirk is talented enough to get open, and quarterback Trevor Lawrence is playing some good ball right now.
Kirk is averaging 69 receiving yards per game this season and is coming off a six-catch, 92-yard performance against Dallas. Despite expected windy and rainy conditions, I expect his big year to continue with 50 or more receiving yards against the Jets.
Jaguars WR Zay Jones under 4.5 receptions (-146 at FanDuel)
Jones has also put together a nice season for the Jaguars, but I’m not as sold that it will be sustained in this game. I expect Gardner to cover him for much of the contest, and the Rookie of the Year favorite has been an absolute lockdown defender this season.
Jones has already set a career-high in receiving yards and catches this season but his reception numbers have been up and down depending on the week. While Jones has reached five catches or more in eight of 13 games, this is one of the toughest matchups he will face all year.
With Kirk and Evan Engram available, Lawrence won’t feel the need to force-feed Jones, and I think he will have a quiet game, which is why I’m confident riding with the heavy favorite.
Jets QB Zach Wilson under 0.5 interceptions (+155 at DraftKings)
Let’s get this out of the way: This bet is in no way an endorsement of Wilson. He is a very bad quarterback who should be on the bench, but is instead playing because of an injury to Mike White.
Wilson is inaccurate and plays hero ball, so the over should definitely be the favorite, but are we absolutely positive the Jets quarterback throws a pick in this one?
First off, New York figures to use a conservative game plan that calls for plenty of rushing attempts, as Wilson has an over/under of only 30.5 pass attempts. The Jets are also slight favorites, and if they do manage to take the lead, it will allow for Wilson to play a conservative brand of football.
As bad as he’s been since entering the NFL, Wilson has done a good job of limiting his interceptions over the past 13 games, throwing picks in only three of them. He does have 17 career interceptions in 21 games, but if New York takes the lead and takes the air out of the ball, the underdog side of this wager has a chance to hit.
And then there is also the non-zero chance that Wilson is so bad for three or four series that Joe Flacco takes over at quarterback. If the Jaguars get ahead and Wilson has to air it out, this wager is sunk, but at these odds I’ll take the under.
Prop Bets Record: 76-73
