We’ve got a huge slate of football games on Christmas Eve, so sit down with your eggnog and enjoy the action.
Here are my picks against the spread.
And here are three prop bets to keep you entertained on your day of merriment:
Chiefs QB Patrick Mahomes over 294.5 passing yards (-115)
Mahomes has been dazzling all season long and sits in the catbird seat for MVP. He has thrown for 300-plus yards in eight of his past nine starts and I expect that to continue here.
The Seahawks have been up and down defensively this season and enter the game No. 19 defending the pass, per Football Outsiders. I don’t think Mahomes is going to encounter much friction throwing the ball, so the big question is how long he will be needed to air it out.
The Seahawks are 10-point underdogs and if they are down 14 points in the fourth quarter, the Chiefs might take the foot off the gas. However, I think Seattle will score enough to keep this game competitive, and if that happens, Mahomes should be able to cruise to another performance of 300 yards.
Bears RB David Montgomery over 49.5 rush yards (-113)
Justin Fields has a rushing total of 77.5 yards for this game but I can’t bring myself to wager on that prop. I do like the one for Montgomery, who has been the picture of consistency this season.
Even though Chicago has lost seven straight games, Montgomery continues to put up steady carries and production. He has reached 50 yards or more in four consecutive games, and with the bitter cold expected in Chicago for this game, I’m sure his number will be called early and often against the Bills.
The Bears are an 8.5-point underdog in this game so they may have to throw at the very end, but they will delay that as long as possible and allow Fields and Montgomery to do work on the ground. Montgomery is averaging 4.0 yards per carry this season and if he gets in the neighborhood of 14 or 15 carries I think he surpasses this rushing total.
Saints-Browns over 32.5 total points (-105)
Scoring totals are this low once in a blue moon so I feel like we have to take a stab at it. Points or expected to be at a premium because of the weather. The game is going to be played in freezing temperatures and windy conditions.
So why am I taking the over? Well, the running game figures to be least affected by the conditions and Cleveland’s is very impressive. Nick Chubb is going to play for the Browns, and he is an elite running back, while Kareem Hunt is also a very good player. Cleveland won’t be throwing the ball a lot, but play-action should be super effective in this game, and if a big play or two hits, that’s a boon for the over.
The wind is going to make it tough on the kickers, but it’s not necessarily a bad thing that the coaches could be forced to be ultra-aggressive. All we need is five total touchdowns or four touchdowns and a couple of field goals for the over to hit.
Am I resoundingly confident in this bet? No, but I’m not gonna take the under on 32.5! Blasphemy.
Prop bets record this week: 1-2
Overall: 77-75
