The Cardinals didn’t deliver their fans any warm and fuzzy feelings this year, but hopefully they can at least help them make some money on Christmas.
Like many others, I don’t think Arizona will cover as 7.5-point underdogs against the Tampa Bay Buccaneers on Sunday Night Football.
Here are three prop bets I like for the matchup:
Cardinals RB James Conner under 17.5 rushing attempts (-110)
Conner has been the clear workhorse in the backfield the past several weeks, playing 91% or more of the snaps in four of the past five games.
Even with that heavy snap count, he has only reached 18 carries in two of those contests. The problem is that the current iteration of the Cardinals is a terrible football team, and the rushing attempts disappear late as the team tries to rally back from a deficit.
Trace McSorley will be the quarterback for this matchup and I have a hard time seeing the Cardinals staying close in this game. If Tampa Bay pulls ahead, the running game will be abandoned, so even if Conner piles up the carries in the first half, I could see that come screeching to a halt late.
There is also the possibility that the Cardinals give some of their other running backs some work now that they have been officially eliminated from the playoffs. Conner will be back next season and there is no reason to give him a huge workload in meaningless games the rest of the way.
Buccaneers QB Tom Brady longest completion over 35.5 yards (-115)
The Cardinals are longshots to win this game, and the only chance is if the defense plays lights-out. Defensive coordinator Vance Joseph likes to be aggressive, and even though Brady often gets the ball out quick, blitzing him seems necessary because sitting back will allow him to complete short passes at will.
Arizona has to push the envelope on defense, which means there will be opportunities for big plays down the field. Even though Budda Baker and Jalen Thompson are a very good safety tandem, and Cardinals are extremely thin at cornerback against the duo of Mike Evans and Chris Godwin.
Between the talent mismatch and the likelihood that the Cardinals play single-high safety regularly, the Bucs should be able to rip off a pass play of 36 yards or more at some point in the contest.
Cardinals QB Trace McSorley under 192.5 pass yards (-115)
The oddsmakers are undoubtedly counting on a heavy volume of passes in the second half because the Cardinals are likely to be behind.
Even if that is the case, I’m not confident McSorley can reach 193 passing yards. He was just 7-of-15 for 95 yards with a pair of interceptions against the Broncos in relief of Colt McCoy last time out and only has a respectable career yards per attempt figure of 6.6 because one of his 18 career completions went for 70 yards.
The Cardinals have DeAndre Hopkins to lead the air attack, but Hollywood Brown is questionable with a groin injury. Tight end Zach Ertz and wide receiver Rondale Moore are already done for the year with injuries so the receiving corps could be undermanned.
McSorley is a third-string quarterback going against a talented defense that will be motivated to play well and help inch the Bucs closer to a playoff berth. I don’t think it’s going to be pretty, and that’s why the under is the pick.
Prop bets record this week: 1-2
Overall: 77-75
