It’s a full schedule of football games in Week 15. Some teams are still jockeying for playoff position while others already have their eyes on the draft.
Check out all my picks against the spread.
Here are the three prop bets I like the best:
Ravens RB J.K. Dobbins over 48.5 rush yards (-115)
It’s been a frustrating season for Dobbins, who has missed several games due to injury. But he returned last week against the Steelers and did a fantastic job, carrying the ball 15 times for 120 yards and a touchdown.
Dobbins has a yards-per-carry average of 5.7 in his career and should be relied on heavily against the Browns because the Ravens will be without starting quarterback Lamar Jackson.
This is a very manageable number to clear, and I think Dobbins will get plenty of carries to get there. Even though Tyler Huntley isn’t as good as Jackson, the offense will look similar and Baltimore’s standout running back should get to 50 yards in this matchup.
Dolphins QB Tua Tagovailoa over 236.5 pass yards (-115)
It is going to be bitterly cold in Buffalo for this game between the Dolphins and Bills, while snow is a very realistic possibility. It’s not surprising to see depressed passing yardage totals for both Tua and Josh Allen, but I think it’s a bit too low for Tagovailoa.
He still has Tyreek Hill and Jaylen Waddle, who can take quick passes to the house in an instant. The Dolphins are also a touchdown underdog in this game, and if they are trailing late, coach Mike McDaniel will have no choice but to throw the ball a lot.
Tagovailoa has struggled in his past two games but is still averaging 8.7 yards per pass attempt, which leads the NFL. The Buffalo defense and the weather are hurdles, but I like Tagovailoa to surpass this figure.
Detroit Lions over 21.5 points (-110)
The Lions are up to No. 7 in offensive efficiency at Football Outsiders, and Jared Goff has been the sixth-best quarterback in the NFL this season, per ESPN’s Total QBR.
The Jets have the sixth-best defense led by an impressive secondary and will put up a good fight, but I think reaching 22 points is attainable for the Lions. Detroit is averaging 26.8 points per game this season, which is No. 5 in the NFL.
Their defense is also going against Zach Wilson, and a turnover or two to set up the offense with great field position is possible.
This week’s prop bets record: 2-2
Overall: 74-69
