Week 13 is over, thank goodness. Now that my 2-7 showing is in the rearview we can get back to winning prop bets.
Here is my pick against the spread for tonight’s Thursday Night Football game between the Raiders and Rams.
And here are the three prop bets I like best:
Raiders QB Derek Carr over 249.5 passing yards (-104 at Caesars)
Carr might not be an elite quarterback but he can rack up the yardage. After a slow start to the season, things have started to click of late. He has thrown for an average of 272 yards per game over his past five and now faces off against a Rams’ defense ranked only No. 27 against the pass by Football Outsiders.
Aaron Donald, the most talented defensive player in the NFL, is out, which is more important than the expected absences of Hunter Renfrow and Darren Waller for the Raiders.
Josh Jacobs is on a tear running the ball and there is concern that the score can get lopsided enough that Carr stops throwing, but I think he will do some heavy damage early and reach 250 passing yards.
Rams WR Tutu Atwell over 23.5 receiving yards (-110 at FanDuel)
Playing time has been sporadic for the speedy second-year receiver, but injuries to Cooper Kupp and Allen Robinson have thrust Atwell into the lineup and he has responded well.
Atwell, a former second-round pick, has five catches for 133 yards and a touchdown over his past three games and was targeted a season-high five times in last week’s loss to the Seahawks.
The Rams are not going to be an aerial juggernaut in this matchup, but I believe Atwell will be prominently involved when they do go to the air. This total is doable, especially with his big-play ability down the field.
Rams RB Kyren Williams under 44.5 rushing and receiving yards (-120 at DraftKings)
Cam Akers has been pretty dreadful as the lead back for Los Angeles this season, averaging 3.3 yards per carry, but coach Sean McVay seems intent on keeping him in that role.
Williams has seen some playing time in recent weeks after the release of Darrell Henderson, but he’s only reached 45 combined rush and receiving yards one time.
Williams played 70% of the snaps two weeks ago but only 28% of the time against Seattle. Akers actually had a good performance in that one with 17 carries for 60 yards and two touchdowns, which makes me think he will be the main running back once again.
Even if Williams gets touches, the Raiders’ defense will likely be stacking the box because it will be unafraid of downfield throws. Williams has potential but there are too many factors working against him
Prop Bets Record Last Week: 2-7
Overall: 66-62
