Sunday Night Football should be a fun one, with the Dolphins aiming to solidify themselves as contenders in the AFC while the Chargers fight for their playoff lives.
You can check out my game prediction here.
And here are three prop bets I like for the primetime affair:
Chargers RB Austin Ekeler over 44.5 receiving yards (-110 at BetMGM)
I really love this wager to kick things off. Ekeler is a good running back but really excels in the passing game.
He has been targeted a whopping 104 times this season and has 85 catches in 12 games. Ekeler is the ninth-most targeted player in the NFL at 8.7 per game, which is easily the most among running backs.
He is averaging just 6.6 yards per reception, which is easily a career-low, but is still putting up 47 receiving yards per contest because of the volume. The Chargers could have Keenan Allen and Mike Williams together on the outside, which means quarterback Justin Herbert could look downfield more, but Ekeler should still be heavily involved.
The Chargers are underdogs in this game, and if they are throwing the ball late, Ekeler could be a major factor on checkdowns if the Dolphins use two high safeties.
Dolphins WR Tyreek Hill Longest Reception under 30.5 yards (-120 at DraftKings)
I’m betting against the most electric football player in the league, and that’s always nervewracking, but stick with me here as I explain.
Hill leads the NFL in receiving yards with 1,379 and is fresh off a nine-catch, 146-yard performance against the 49ers. He will almost certainly put up big numbers in this one, but I don’t think he’s going to get loose for a reception of 31-plus yards.
Hill has played 12 games this season, and in only five of them has he registered a reception that long. Despite a dominant season, it’s a very high bar to clear.
I also think it’s going to be more difficult against Los Angeles because of the way it plays defense. The Chargers are terrible against the run and have given up heavy yardage to tight ends, running backs and auxiliary receivers.
But according to Football Outsiders, Los Angeles has allowed only 64.5 receiving yards to No. 1 receivers. The Chargers play plenty of quarters coverage, which keeps four defensive backs deep and encourages quarterbacks to look for underneath receivers.
Dolphins coach Mike McDaniel is still going to attack the secondary because Hill is such an elite talent, but I think star safety Derwin James and Co. can do enough to keep Hill from breaking away for a 31-yard-plus reception.
Chargers under 24.5 points (-110 at DraftKings)
Herbert looked like one of the best quarterbacks in the NFL last season but it’s been a struggle in 2022. He has a yards-per-attempt figure of only 6.5 this year and a Total QBR of 56.6.
Obviously injuries have played a role, as Allen and Williams have both missed a significant chunk of the season.
They could both be available in this game, and Los Angeles is expected to need a lot of points to keep up with the high-powered Dolphins. While over 24.5 points might entice some, I’m on the other side of it.
Miami’s defense is not that good, so I expect the Chargers to move the ball, but this could come down to how efficient they are scoring touchdowns in the red zone.
Additionally, it’s pretty rare for a team to score 25 or 26 points, so this number likely means Los Angeles will need either four touchdowns or three touchdowns and two field goals to surpass it.
I could see the Chargers brushing right up against their total, but if they have 23 or 24 points in the fourth quarter and find themselves trailing by more than a field goal, they won’t be kicking late. That means it would take a touchdown to hit the over, and I think the Miami defense will be able to keep them out of the end zone.
My game prediction put the Chargers at 24 and I don’t think they will get any more than that.
Prop Bets Record This Week: 2-1
Overall: 68-63
