The week is wrapping up with a less-than-exciting Monday Night Football affair between the Colts and Steelers. Luckily, we have reason to watch, because betting.
Check out my pick against the spread.
Here are three prop bets I like:
Colts QB Matt Ryan over 20.5 completions (+105 at DraftKings)
I like the plus money that can be had here. The Steelers have a ferocious defensive front, which is led by T.J. Watt, Cameron Heyward and Alex Highsmith. In order to combat that, Indy will need to either run the ball well or get it out quickly.
Pittsburgh is No. 7 in rush defense efficiency this season so if Jonathan Taylor can’t get things going on the ground, it will be up to Ryan to move the ball. He is a statue in the pocket but is a veteran who should be able to find his outlets when the pressure is coming,
I don’t think the efficiency numbers will look good at the end of this game but Ryan could rack up a lot of short completions. Even though the Colts are slight favorites in this matchup, I wouldn’t be surprised to see them trailing late, which is key to having enough volume.
Steelers WR Diontae Johnson over 46.5 receiving yards (-110 at DraftKings)
It’s been a down year for Johnson, who is averaging only 45.6 receiving yards per game after being over 60 each of the past two seasons. He also has to deal with an expected matchup against Stephon Gilmore, who is playing elite football for the Colts.
But quarterback Kenny Pickett talked this week of moving Johnson around to get him the ball, and if he gets some snaps from the slot, it’s doubtful Gilmore follows him there. Johnson has not gotten a bunch of targets in recent games and I think the Steelers know they have to manufacture more touches for him.
Johnson is a great athlete and can rack up the yardage when given the ball. I think Pittsburgh makes a concerted effort to get him more involved, and strong production will be the result.
Steelers OLB T.J. Watt To Record A Sack (-172 at FanDuel)
This is the third game back from injury for the reigning Defensive Player of the Year. Watt is a sack machine, and these odds really reflect it.
The Colts’ offensive line has been a sieve this season and now it’s going against a dominant Pittsburgh front. Even if Watt gets chipped or double-teamed for some of the game, he should still make his presence felt.
Ryan has a sack percentage of 7.5 this season, an extremely high rate which could rise after this one. The Indy offense has been really bad in 2022, and any time it is in third-and-long, Watt will have a chance to get to the quarterback.
Watt could get a sack at any time, but if Pittsburgh leads late in the game, Ryan will be particularly susceptible to the pass-rush. Expect Watt to capitalize.
Prop Bets Record This Week: 1-2
Overall: 62-54
