What is this? We may actually have a decent Thursday Night Football game on our hands?
Here is my pick against the spread for Titans-Packers:
And here are three bets I like coming off a 3-0 showing on Monday night.
Derrick Henry over 102.5 rushing yards (-115 at BetMGM)
It almost pains me to take the over on such a high rushing total, but the Titans running back is just built differently. For years we have talked about his inevitable decline and it just never comes.
Henry is averaging 102.6 rushing yards per game this season, the fourth straight season in which he has averaged in triple digits. Additionally, the Packers are No. 30 in rush defense this season, according to Football Outsiders.
The weather is getting colder and the Titans’ recipe for success is a great ground game and good defense, mixed in with some timely passes. Henry is going to get a bunch of work and I think he surpasses this number, as incredibly high as it sits.
Packers QB Aaron Rodgers over 250 pass yards (+155 at DraftKings)
This is a really good value, as Rodgers’ regular over/under passing yardage total is set at 238.5 yards with -115 juice. If he gets there, surpassing 250 may only take one more completion.
It has certainly been a struggle for Rodgers this season, as he is 25th in the NFL in Total QBR after leading the league in that category each of the past two years. His yards-per-attempt figure of 6.9 is tracking to be a career-low, and cold weather plus wind is another factor that needs to be considered.
Rodgers, though, did average a season-high 11.2 yards per attempt last week and might finally be jelling with a new cast of receivers. And if the Titans are able to get ahead, he could be in pass-mode at the end of the game. Tennessee is only a three-point underdog, so it’s possible.
The odds of a 300-yard game sit at +500, which is another one to consider because of the hefty payout.
Titans QB Ryan Tannehill under 0.5 interceptions (-130 at BetMGM)
Piggybacking on the Henry number, I expect the Titans to be conservative throwing the ball against the Packers. The running game is the best way to attack, and Tannehill usually does a pretty good job protecting the ball.
He has thrown an interception in two of seven starts this season and has not tossed one over his past four games. The concern here is that Green Bay takes a solid lead and Tannehill is forced to be more aggressive, but the spread is only three points and the talent levels of these two teams seems pretty close.
I like Tannehill to avoid an interception in this contest at pretty good odds.
Last week’s prop bets record: 7-5
Overall: 58-46
