It was a rough start to the week on Thursday Night Football. Luckily, there is nowhere to go but up.
Here are the three prop bets I like most on Sunday:
Falcons TE Kyle Pitts over 36.5 receiving yards (-120 at BetMGM)
I went with Pitts last week on Thursday Night Football and got burned because Marcus Mariota couldn’t throw a rock in the ocean. But you can’t call me a quitter, because I’m back with another wager on Pitts.
I completely understand how disappointing this season has been for the second-year tight end, but this yardage total caught my eye. Pitts has been targeted 15 times in the past two games but has only caught four of the passes for 56 yards.
His yards per target of 5.8, catch percentage of 46.3 and yards per game of 34.8 are all way down from a year ago, but I think a course correction is on the way. Pitts played 89% of the offensive snaps last week and I think there will be an urgency to get him the ball.
And let’s talk about the Chicago defense. It is No. 30 in the NFL this season, per Football Outsiders, including No. 29 against the pass. Chicago has recently dealt away star linebacker Roquan Smith and standout edge rusher Robert Quinn, making the group even worse.
I don’t think the Falcons are going to put up video game numbers, but 37 yards from Pitts is eminently doable.
Eagles RB Miles Sanders over 63.5 rush yards (-115 at DraftKings)
The Indianapolis Colts have one of the better run defenses in the NFL but I’m not sure they can contain a running back like Sanders. He is averaging 78.9 rushing yards per game this season at five yards per carry.
The Eagles are seven-point favorites and I think they will be out ahead in the second half, which means plenty of carries for Sanders. The game script got way out of whack last week for Philadelphia against the Commanders, and yet Sanders still finished with 54 yards rushing on 12 carries.
He should be in line for more work in this game and I like him to reach 64 rushing yards.
Commanders WR Terry McLaurin over 61.5 receiving yards (-110 at BetMGM)
Scary Terry has been on a heater with Taylor Heinicke at quarterback, going for 100 receiving yards twice in his past three games. McLaurin is averaging 73.7 receiving yards per game this season and is the clear-cut No. 1 option on offense for the Commanders.
Washington likes to run the ball, and that won’t change against the Houston Texans on Sunday, but when Heinicke throws it he will always be looking for McLaurin. Houston also might not have top cornerback Derek Stingley, Jr., who is a game-time decision with a hamstring injury that kept him out of practice this week. The talented rookie has a bright career ahead of him and the Texans are going nowhere this year, so they should be cautious and could sit him.
The Commanders are slight favorites in this game and could be running the ball a lot late in the contest, but I don’t think they are going to blow out Houston. As long as Heinicke throws the ball a decent amount, I believe McLaurin’s hot streak will continue with another big performance.
This week’s prop bets record: 0-3
Overall: 58-49
