Let’s settle in for another Sunday of football. I have made my picks against the spread, which you can find below.
Here are three prop bets that I like, and I’m ready for redemption after Marcus Mariota caused a 1-2 start on Thursday Night Football (never trust Marcus Mariota):
Bears QB Justin Fields over 57.5 rushing yards (-125)
Fields went off last week, carrying the ball 15 times for 178 yards and a touchdown against the Dolphins. He averaged a meager 4.4 yards per pass attempt, and this has been the combination practically all season.
Chicago is not good enough to consistently throw the ball, so they rely on the legs of Fields and the running back group to get points. The Lions have a bad defense, and maybe the Bears can get something going through the air, but more likely than not Fields will be attacking on the ground.
In the past four games, he has 49 carries for 408 yards, an average of 8.3 yards per tote. He’s going to keep taking off on scrambles or designed runs, and even if the efficiency goes down, there should be enough volume for him to reach this number once again.
Browns WR Donovan Peoples-Jones under 43.5 receiving yards (-105)
Peoples-Jones is on an absolute tear, catching 14-of-15 targets for 226 yards over the past three weeks. That’s an average of 75.3 yards per game, and he has surpassed 43 in each of his past five.
That’s awesome, but I also think it’s an unsustainable outlier. Peoples-Jones is a decent wide receiver but he’s not the type of player that demands the ball, and his numbers can fluctuate week to week.
Even though the Dolphins are No. 31 overall against the pass, per Football Outsiders, they have done a pretty decent job against No. 1 and No. 2 receivers. Browns quarterback Jacoby Brissett is in the midst of a brilliant stretch, but I think he also regresses in this game, especially considering Bradley Chubb is now available to put on some pass-rushing heat.
Nick Chubb and Amari Cooper are the stars on offense for Cleveland, and I expect Peoples-Jones to have a quiet outing against Miami.
Denver Broncos over 17.5 points (+100)
If this isn’t an indictment of the Russell Wilson era in Denver, then I don’t know what would be. The Broncos only need to score a measly 18 points against the Titans on Sunday for this to hit, and yet it’s the underdog at +100 odds.
The Broncos’ offense has been bad this year, and when you combine that with Tennessee’s ground-oriented attack and Denver’s tough defense, the oddsmakers expect a slugfest.
As you see, though, I took the over. I get that the Broncos are only averaging 15.1 points per game, but they are also dead last in touchdown percentage in the red zone, which tends to regress to the mean over time. Denver is only converting 35% of its trips into seven points, and if that gets a slight course correction in this matchup, the Broncos should be able to surpass this.
Additionally, Wilson has been so far below his usual production that I keep waiting for improvement. He averaged 8.4 yards per pass attempt last time out against the Jaguars, so maybe that’s a sign of things to come.
Despite half a season worth of evidence, I’m betting on improvement from the Denver offense.
This week’s prop bets record: 1-2
Overall: 52-43
