We’ve got an intriguing AFC East matchup on tap for Thursday Night Football, as the Buffalo Bills travel to face the New England Patriots.
Buffalo is the slight favorite and I have outlined my pick against the spread.
Here are three prop bets I like heading into the contest:
Patriots RB Rhamondre Stevenson over 37.5 receiving yards (-115 at BetMGM)
Damien Harris is out tonight, which means Stevenson should get the vast majority of the running back touches. He is averaging 4.5 yards per carry and will get a good chunk of carries, but the Buffalo defense is ranked No. 3 against the run, and I’m not sure how effective he will be on the ground.
Stevenson has averaged 6.6 receptions and 54.6 receiving yards over his past five games and is coming off an outing against the Vikings in which he caught nine passes for 76 yards.
The Patriots are 3.5-point underdogs and I think they will be playing from behind in this one, which means the chance to hit on some late yardage in addition to the production he has in the regular flow of the game.
Bills WR Stefon Diggs under 84.5 receiving yards (-110 at FanDuel)
Diggs is a monster. There is no denying that. However, the Patriots are No. 5 in the NFL against an opposing team’s No. 1 receiver, per Football Outsiders, allowing 66.4 receiving yards per contest.
New England coach Bill Belichick is famous for trying to take away an opponent’s strength. Maybe that means spying Josh Allen so he can’t run, but I think it will be a big emphasis on keeping Diggs in check and forcing Dawson Knox and Gabriel Davis to beat him.
Diggs is averaging 100.9 receiving yards per game this season, so this bet could look foolish, but I’m projecting a quieter-than-expected showing.
Patriots K Nick Folk under 1.5 field goals made (-115 at DraftKings)
Folk leads the NFL in field goals made (24) and attempted (28) but it has been feast or famine. He has four games with four or more field goals made and six with one or fewer.
There are a couple reasons why I think the under will hit in this game. We are getting to the point of the year where weather is becoming a factor, and there are wind gusts expected during the game.
Additionally, Gillette Stadium has some tough conditions, and those may have contributed to Folk missing a pair in his most recent home game in Week 11 against the Jets.
And then there is the game script. Even if Folk hits one early, I wouldn’t be surprised to see the Patriots down by 7 or 14 points late in the contest, which would mean little reason for kicking a field goal because it wouldn’t help much on the scoreboard.
Prop Bets Record Last Week: 3-3
Overall: 64-55
