The San Francisco 49ers can wrap up the NFC West with a win against the Seattle Seahawks on Thursday Night Football.
How do I see the game going? I’m glad you asked.
Here are four prop bets I like for the matchup:
49ers QB Brock Purdy over 224.5 pass yards (-110)
The 49ers were so dominant last week against the Buccaneers that Purdy didn’t put up big counting stats. However, he was efficient when throwing the ball, and I think that will continue here against the Seahawks.
This game should be closer, and provided the 49ers don’t get out to another big lead, I think he will be throwing the ball regularly throughout the contest.
Purdy had a lot of experience in college so the primetime moment shouldn’t be too big for him. I think he will do a good job of getting the ball to his playmakers, which will allow their legs to rack up the yardage for him.
49ers RB Christian McCaffrey under 17.5 rushing attempts (-110)
McCaffrey had a huge rushing game last week against a normally-stingy Buccaneers defense, rushing the ball 14 times for 119 yards and a touchdown. Elijah Mitchell is on injured reserve and wide-receiver-but-sometimes-running-back Deebo Samuel is also out for this game.
So there is reason to believe in a heavy workload, but I like the under for a couple reasons.
McCaffrey is not your prototypical workhorse, as he is also extremely potent catching the ball. The 49ers want to get him the ball a lot, but not necessarily always through handoffs.
Coach Kyle Shanahan also likes to get creative and has often used multiple backs, so I don’t feel like it will all be on McCaffrey. And then there is the possibility the 49ers are trailing late in this game. They are slight favorites but a miscue or two could mean they will be throwing the ball in the fourth quarter, which would deflate McCaffrey’s total.
This is a workhorse rushing attempts number, and I think there are enough scenarios in which McCaffrey doesn’t get there, which is why I’ll take the under.
49ers WR Ray-Ray McCloud under 1.5 receptions (-115)
Oh, yes, we are getting into the nitty gritty with this one. Deebo Samuel is out for a few weeks, which is expected to elevate Jauan Jennings into the starting lineup and give McCloud more snaps as the No. 3 receiver.
So while he should play more, I don’t think he’s going to catch a pair of passes. McCloud is, at best, fifth in the pecking order for targets. George Kittle, Brandon Aiyuk, McCaffrey and Jennings are clearly ahead of him, while fellow reserve wide receiver Danny Gray is a wild card.
McCloud carried the ball three times last week against the Buccaneers and I actually wouldn’t be surprised if he got a couple touches that way, behind McCaffrey and Jordan Mason.
McCloud has 12 catches in 13 games this season, and has caught two or more in just one of them. I like the under, but it’s going to be a long night if McCloud catches a bubble screen in the first quarter, forcing me to find him before each snap and hope Purdy looks in a different direction.
Total field goal yards under 126.5 (-110)
Oh, yes, we are getting into the REALLY nitty gritty with this one. The over/under on the number of field goals is 3.5, with the under the favorite at -130. While I tend to agree with that, I think we can steal some value by choosing this wager instead.
This equates to an average field goal distance of 42 yards for the under to hit if there are three makes. There is the concern of a couple 50-yard bombs that would properly screw up this bet, but on a cold night in Seattle I don’t think either coach will be easily opting for those attempts, especially knowing how well the offenses are faring.
And while three long field goals could push us over this yardage total, the inverse is true: if there are one or two short field goals made in the game, there could conceivably be four pushed through with the under still hitting.
So, yes, once I’m done charting Ray-Ray McCloud’s whereabouts for the 49ers, I’ll be busting out the spreadsheet to add up the field goal yardage. It’s a nerdy life, but someone has to do it.
Last week’s prop bets record: 6-5
Overall: 72-67
