The Thursday Night Football slate continues with another banger this week, as the Kansas City Chiefs host the Los Angeles Chargers in a matchup of Super Bowl contenders.
The scoring total is set at 54, so there could be some fireworks in this matchup.
Here are three prop bets I like heading into the action.
Mike Williams over 65.5 receiving yards (-115)
Williams can be a boom-or-bust option, as he had seven games with more than 80 receiving yards last season, but five under 40. His 2022 campaign started slowly, with only two catches for 10 yards and four targets.
However, with Keenan Allen out, Williams should be the clear top option for Justin Herbert. The Chiefs’ defense was more stout than expected in Week 1 against the Cardinals, but the loss of rookie cornerback Trent McDuffie is a big one.
Williams is a big play specialist and can grab a chunk of this yardage total with just one grab. I’m guessing the Chargers’ coaching staff has emphasized getting Williams the ball after his quiet opener. Let’s take advantage.
Patrick Mahomes over 0.5 interceptions (-105)
Mahomes has an over/under on pass attempts at 40.5. If this is the shootout many expect, he’s going to be bombing the ball all over the field. Even if he puts up big numbers, there is a decent chance that a talented Los Angeles defense gets its hands on at least one throw.
Mahomes threw an interception in 10 of 17 games last season and Los Angeles seems likely to deploy the two-high safety look that has been the most common schematical tactic against him of late. Mahomes’ career interception rate of 1.6 is low, but if the Chiefs fall behind in this one (not impossible) then he may really need to rev up the degree of difficulty.
With Khalil Mack and Joey Bosa putting on pressure, plus Derwin James, Asante Samuel and hopefully J.C. Jackson on the back end, the Chargers should get one after intercepting Derek Carr three times on Sunday.
Chiefs K Matt Ammendola over 1.5 field goals (+100)
Harrison Butker has been ruled out for this game, and the Chiefs will roll with Ammendola as his replacement.
Kansas City is often aggressive on fourth down because of Mahomes’ presence, and this one is expected to be a shootout that has more touchdowns than field goals.
With an unproven kicker under the bright lights, I can see why people might take the under on this. However, the Chiefs have such a dominant offense that they figure to be in Los Angeles territory regularly in this matchup.
But Los Angeles has a pair of elite pass-rushers in Khalil Mack and Joey Bosa. If they get to Mahomes a couple times to stall drives, it could result in multiple field goal attempts.
Additionally, this game could be so close late that a field goal decides it. Ammendola could come into play as the game winds down.
Last week on prop bets: 3-3
Overall: 3-3
