Every franchise with a star quarterback has hope.
In my rankings on Thursday, only a few teams could make that claim. But now we are down to the final two tiers of my quarterback rankings, where everyone is a game-changer.
But who is the best of the best? Here are my rankings of the nine top quarterbacks in football heading into 2022, broken up into two tiers.
Tier II (Lead Us To The Promised Land)
9. Lamar Jackson, Ravens
8. Joe Burrow, Bengals
7. Russell Wilson, Broncos
6. Kyler Murray, Cardinals
5. Josh Allen, Bills
4. Justin Herbert, Chargers
I’m confident that every one of these quarterbacks can be the driving force behind a Super Bowl run, and honestly, there is so little separation between the six that I wouldn’t quibble much with any alternate order. Most teams in the league would gobble up these half-dozen stars to lead their franchise.
Jackson has an MVP award and is the most dynamic rushing quarterback in the NFL — second-best ever behind Michael Vick — which makes slowing him down a Herculean task. However, the passing efficiency has declined the past two seasons while the interceptions and sacks have increased, which drops him a couple spots on the list. Jackson has the high-end potential to be elite, but the pass-game hiccups can’t be ignored, and must be fixed in 2022.
Burrow had a wonderful sophomore campaign, leading the NFL in yards per attempt (8.9) and Completion Percentage Over Expectation (+6.0) while taking the upstart Bengals to the Super Bowl. His sack total of 51 was incredibly high — which resulted in a middling Total QBR or 54.3 — but with a sturdier offensive line in 2022, that number should drop. If Burrow can keep up his efficiency while lowering the sacks and his interception percentage, he will be truly elite. I do question, though, if the gaudy yards-per-attempt figure can be repeated. Regression seems likely, but even with some, Burrow has proven he’s a star under center.
Wilson is an interesting case. His numbers have taken a slight dip the past couple of years, which some Seahawks fans believe is a harbinger of things to come. But I don’t believe that. At 34 years old, he is still smack in a quarterback’s prime, and now will get a new lease on life in Denver. Depending how quickly he grasps a new offense, I wouldn’t be surprised if he has a dominant season. My knock on Wilson has always been the number of sacks he takes, but in Seattle he always had a porous offensive line. It’s going to be interesting to see how he plays with the Broncos. Wilson is good enough to win MVP, but if he doesn’t dominate in 2022, analysts will question whether he is starting to decline.
Murray is probably higher in my rankings than most would posit, and that’s because I prefer to take a wide view when assessing quarterbacks, instead of focusing on a handful of games. There is no question he played poorly in the playoff contest against the Rams, and struggled without DeAndre Hopkins down the stretch of 2021, but the overall numbers were still impressive for a third-year quarterback. Murray finished No. 4 in the NFL in yards per attempt (7.9), No. 8 in passer rating (100.6) and No. 2 in CPOE (+3.9). He was No. 7 in Total QBR, the top deep passer in the NFL according to Pro Football Focus, and boasted elite rushing ability. Recency bias has led to an offseason of consternation, but Murray is a 24-year-old quarterback on the precipice of a superstar breakout.
Even though I have Allen top-5, there will probably be some who argue that he’s placed too low. After all, he is the preseason favorite to win MVP in 2022. My reasoning: While everyone remembers the unbelievable performance against the Chiefs in the playoffs, Allen wasn’t always like that in 2021. He finished the regular season 23rd in the NFL in yards per attempt (6.8), 16th in passer rating (92.2) and 22nd in CPOE (-0.9). Now, he was sixth in QBR because he’s a dynamic rushing threat, and his passing numbers should bounce back in 2022, but still, I don’t perceive Allen as the same slam-dunk superstar that others might. His arm strength and rushing abilities are incredible, but Allen can still be slightly inconsistent, which is enough to keep him out of the top tier.
On the other hand, I do feel confident in Herbert and his ability to make the leap to elite status in 2022. In just his second season in 2021, the Chargers’ quarterback finished No. 3 in Total QBR and led quarterbacks in Expected Points Added with 120.3. The 24-year-old is in the sweet spot of his career — experienced enough that the game is slowing down, young enough to still have all his mobility, and cheap enough that Los Angeles can stack the roster around him. Like many, I had doubts about Herbert when he entered the draft, but the Chargers found a superstar, and he will push to join the top tier if things progress as expected in 2022.
Tier I (Superstars)
3. Aaron Rodgers, Packers
2. Tom Brady, Buccaneers
1. Patrick Mahomes, Chiefs
Rodgers is coming off back-to-back MVP seasons, so anyone arguing he should be No. 1 on this list is well within their right to do that. I placed him at No. 3, though, because the five years prior weren’t spectacular, and in aggregate I think he is a hair behind the other two. It’s obviously nitpicking, as Rodgers should once again have the Packers in contention this season despite a wide receiver room that can generously be referred to as thin after the departure of Davante Adams.
Brady finished second in MVP voting to Rodgers last season, and there are two reasons why I have him higher on this list. The first is that Brady does a better job avoiding sacks than Rodgers, which doesn’t affect a quarterback’s yards per attempt figure but can kill drives. The other is that I expect to see some positive regression on his interception percentage, which was inflated last year because of tipped passes landing in the hands of defenders. Tampa Bay’s wide receiver room isn’t as strong this year because Antonio Brown is gone and Chris Godwin is making his way back from injury, but Brady reads defenses so well that he should be just fine. Even at age-45, another spectacular season awaits.
And atop this list is a guy who had his worst season in 2021 but should have no problem bouncing back after a historical start to his career. Mahomes is entering his age-27 campaign, which is the prime age for an athlete. Tyreek Hill is gone via trade, and that will be the biggest hurdle to overcome in 2022, but Mahomes is a singular player at the position, able to both see the game and make throws at a level that has rarely been seen. The worst season of Mahomes’ career still resulted in a Pro Bowl, and if he bounces back, as expected, in 2022, another MVP and Super Bowl are legitimate possibilities.
