It’s a pretty simple equation in the NFL: No quarterback, no chance.
Even though other facets of the game are important, it’s extremely hard to win a Super Bowl without a star signal-caller leading the way. So who is best-positioned heading into 2022?
I’ve taken a look at every projected starting quarterback — plus Jimmy Garoppolo! — and placed them into seven tiers. Here is a look at Tiers 3-7. The top two tiers will be unveiled on Friday.
Tier VII (No Hope)
33. Drew Lock, Seahawks
32. Sam Darnold, Panthers
31. Mitchell Trubisky, Steelers
30. Daniel Jones, Giants
29. Davis Mills, Texans
28. Zach Wilson, Jets
They say hope springs eternal before the season, but that’s hard to believe for fans of these teams.
Lock couldn’t beat out Teddy Bridgewater for starting duties in Denver last season, and it would be a shock to see him have any type of success in Seattle. Maybe there’s some upside there, but you could hand me a microscope and I still wouldn’t see it. Darnold seems to have the inside track on starting in Carolina, but this will probably be his final year doing so before transitioning to the backup/mentor portion of his career.
The Steelers have an excellent defense, but unless Trubisky finally unlocks something, it won’t matter in Pittsburgh. Jones seems like another quarterback who will start this year before becoming a backup moving forward. He’s had enough chances and has not shown enough.
Daniel Jones on the Giants declining his fifth year option:
"It's the business part of it. It kinda is what it is." pic.twitter.com/gxY2nflAyJ
— Giants Videos (@SNYGiants) May 19, 2022
Mills and Wilson still have upside, but I’m not super high on either, for different reasons. Mills actually had an encouraging rookie season, but it’s rare that third-round picks amount to much at quarterback. It’s possible — hi, Russell Wilson — but Mills needs to prove it.
Wilson was the No. 2 overall pick but was positively dreadful as a rookie, finishing with a Total QBR of 28.2, higher than only Justin Fields, and a league-worst Completion Percentage Over Expectation of negative-10.3. Woof.
Tier VI (Retreads)
27. Marcus Mariota, Falcons
26. Carson Wentz, Commanders
25. Jared Goff, Lions
24. Jameis Winston, Saints
Ah, yes, the guys who showed flashes about a half-decade ago and are now clinging onto starting jobs for dear life.
Mariota is in a rough situation with Atlanta, and he is just keeping the seat warm for whomever the Falcons draft as the quarterback of the future. This is likely the final shot for Wentz, who has shown more potential than the others in the bottom two tiers but has never consistently put it together. Goff has some good parts to his game but too many flaws, and like Mariota is keeping a seat warm.
Jameis Winston from Saints OTA pic.twitter.com/7jOBtPdLTl
— Sean FazendeFOX8 (@SeanFazendeFOX8) June 9, 2022
Winston is the one guy in this group that I think can turn things around and be legitimately successful this year and beyond. He’s always shown the arm talent, but turnovers have been a big problem. That wasn’t as much of an issue last year for the Saints, but Winston tore his ACL so early that it’s hard to know if it was sustainable. If he plays well, the ceiling for the Saints goes way up.
Tier V (Prove It)
23. Tua Tagovailoa, Dolphins
22. Mac Jones, Patriots
21. Justin Fields, Bears
20. Trey Lance, 49ers
19. Trevor Lawrence, Jaguars
We’ve arrived at the first-round-picks-with-potential-who-have-yet-to-prove-themselves tier.
It’s make-or-break for Tua in 2022, who has all the weapons he needs to be successful. If he can’t get it done with Tyreek Hill, Jaylen Waddle, Mike Gesicki, Chase Edmonds and Co., then Miami will be looking for a new quarterback next season.
Tua Tagovailoa’s spicy clapback on “Twitter/keyboard warriors” doubting his arm strength is indicative of changes #Dolphins teammates have seen all offseason in their QB.
An @nflnetwork @NFLTotalAccess look at Tua & his deep ball ahead of a crucial Year 3. pic.twitter.com/VDh3oMv2QS
— Cameron Wolfe (@CameronWolfe) June 3, 2022
The others are all heading into Year 2, so they will have more time, but it’s an important year to show progress. Mac Jones has to prove he has a high enough ceiling to give the Patriots championship aspirations. Fields has almost nothing around him so if he can make strides, it will be noteworthy.
Lance has a great team to work with, and expectations will be high from the jump. Lawrence was viewed as a great prospect after going No. 1 overall last season and can start living up to that hype in Year 2.
Tier IV (Game Managers)
18. Jimmy Garoppolo, 49ers
17. Matt Ryan, Colts
16. Jalen Hurts, Eagles
15. Kirk Cousins, Vikings
14. Derek Carr, Raiders
13. Ryan Tannehill, Titans
We’ve reached the group of quarterbacks in which you can win a Super Bowl with, but they probably won’t be doing the heavy lifting by themselves.
Garoppolo is expected to be traded once healthy, and he’s a decent starter, but is not going to change the direction of the franchise he ends up with. Ryan is an upgrade over Wentz in Indianapolis, but the Colts still aren’t listed among the list of top AFC contenders because he’s not the elite quarterback of yesteryear.
Hurts has mobility and big-play potential, but is not refined as a passer. The Eagles have put a very good team around him, and like Tua, it’s an important year for Hurts to prove he is the franchise guy. There is some buzz, as he has the tenth-best MVP odds at DraftKings.
Cousins, Carr and Tannehill are guys who will put up solid numbers and can get their team to the playoffs. But as we saw last year, they can’t be counted on to light up good defenses in crucial situations.
