It’s been a good week of prop bets, with a 7-2 mark heading into Monday Night Football.
If you missed my prediction for tonight’s game, check it out.
Here are three prop bets I like:
Saints RB Alvin Kamara over 15.5 rush attempts (+100)
This is the underdog side of the ledger, but I like it. The Saints are likely going to have Jarvis Landry and Chris Olave available at wide receiver, but Michael Thomas is done for the year and I don’t think New Orleans will want to throw too much against a good Baltimore pass defense.
Kamara has carried the ball 15, 23, 19, 11 and 18 times the past six weeks, and the Saints will not have Mark Ingram available due to a knee injury. The Saints are slight home underdogs, but the oddsmakers expect this to be a close game. If they have a late lead, Kamara could get plenty of work.
The Ravens are missing several key players and I think both sides are going to rely on the run quite a bit in this matchup. Kamara is going to be the most explosive skill athlete on the field, and the Saints are likely to feed him. Hopefully that comes about with plenty of rushing attempts and not a bunch of passes.
Saints QB Andy Dalton under 233.5 passing yards (-115)
This slots in with my game script belief for the Saints. New Orleans has some weapons on the outside available in this game but with the defense playing well, I don’t think they want to rely too heavily on Andy Dalton.
I believe points could be at a premium in this matchup, which means some conservative play-calling for New Orleans and its defensive-minded head coach, Dennis Allen. Dalton has only surpassed 233 passing yards twice in five starts this year.
If the Saints keep this close or have the lead for much of the contest, I think the under will hit.
Ravens RB Kenyan Drake over 45.5 rushing yards (-115)
It’s been a pretty wild ride for Drake this season. He has three games averaging 6.5 yards per carry or more and three averaging 2.8 or less. But put it all together, and he’s putting up 5.1 yards per tote.
The Ravens’ system is a dream for a running back because quarterback Lamar Jackson causes so many headaches for a defense. With Gus Edwards doubtful and JK Dobbins out, Drake is in line to be the main ballcarrier on Monday.
The Saints are not an easy group to run against, but I believe the volume will be there. If Drake can get to 10 or 11 carries, I like the over hitting. Some of that will be determined by game script, but it helps that Mark Andrews and Rashod Bateman are not expected to be on the field, taking away two major aerial weapons.
If this game becomes a pass-heavy affair, all three of these bets could be screwed. But I think both sides will be relying on the ground attack, which is why I think Drake will put up 46 or more rush yards.
This week’s prop bets record: 7-2
Overall: 49-40
