After a perfect performance on Thursday Night Football, it’s time to turn our attention to Sunday. As a reminder, these are my picks against the spread.
And here are three prop bets I like. Odds courtesy of DraftKings on November 4:
Bears QB Justin Fields over 14.5 pass completions (-130)
It’s been well-chronicled that Fields is not given much leeway at all to throw the ball. He is averaging 11.6 completions per game on the year and has surpassed 14 in just two of his eight starts.
So why do I like the over on this prop? Well, Fields has definitely shown some improvement of late and it seems like the coaching staff is starting to give him a longer leash. The offense has also done better lately, and more first downs means more chances to complete passes.
The Dolphins are favored against the Bears and I feel like Miami will be ahead for most of this game. While the Bears want to run the ball, they will be forced into throwing it in the fourth quarter if they are trailing.
Fields had a season-high in completions last week against the Cowboys with 17 and completed 73.9 percent of his passes. I think he has another solid day against a Miami defense that has been very poor against the pass this year.
Raiders QB Derek Carr over 33.5 pass attempts (-130)
Carr was truly putrid last week against the Saints. The veteran signal-caller completed 15-of-26 passes for 101 yards with no touchdowns and an interception before getting pulled in a 24-0 loss. Carr is reportedly dealing with a back injury but is expected to play in this game.
He has not attempted more than 30 passes in a game since Week 4 but I believe a couple of factors will get him to 34 or more in this game.
The Jaguars are the No. 21-ranked pass defense, according to Football Outsiders, and Las Vegas would be well-served to attack that. Time is running out on any chance of the playoffs, and in order to improve this season the aerial attack must find its groove.
And even though the Raiders are slight favorites in this matchup, I like the Jaguars to win, which would put Carr in pass-mode in the fourth quarter. I think Carr bounces back with a better game against Jacksonville, and more importantly, reaches 34 attempts.
Chargers under 26.5 points (-110)
The Chargers have a high scoring total this week against the Falcons but I don’t think they get there. Los Angeles is No. 16 in offensive efficiency this season, according to Football Outsiders, and could be missing Keenan Allen and Mike Williams for this contest.
Quarterback Justin Herbert is an elite talent, but life won’t be easy if his top two receivers are out. The Falcons have one of the worst defenses in the NFL, but they also have a pretty good offense, which should help keep the ball away from Los Angeles, churn clock and help with field position.
Additionally, the Chargers might go for two at some point depending on the score, and a failed conversion could help us slide under this number if they end up with three touchdowns and two field goals.
This week’s prop bets record: 3-0
Overall: 45-38
