The Cardinals have arrived at another must-win contest, as a home loss to the Seahawks on Sunday would ostensibly put the fork in their season.
If my prediction for the game comes true, it’s not going to be a happy fanbase on Sunday.
Additionally, here are three prop bets I like for the matchup:
DeAndre Hopkins under 83.5 receiving yards (-115)
It’s been an easy ride on the DeAndre Hopkins bus, as choosing the receiving yardage over in his first two games resulted in sweat-free victories. I’m taking the other side this week. First and foremost, the receiving total has jumped greatly from the first two weeks, when it sat in the 60s.
Hopkins is averaging 131 receiving yards per game in his limited work and is the clear-cut star of the offense, so he could easily throw up another triple-digit performance. However, the Seahawks have watched this on tape and if I am Pete Carroll, my goal is to slow Hopkins and force the Cardinals’ other weapons to beat me.
Rookie cornerback Tariq Woolen is likely to get the assignment for much of the day. Woolen intercepted Kyler Murray in the first matchup and is allowing a passer rating of 47.1 on throws his way this season.
If it’s Woolen with safety help for much of the day, I don’t think Hopkins gets to 84 yards in this game.
Seahawks K Jason Myers over 1.5 field goals (-130)
Seattle has been a pleasant surprise on offense, led by reigning NFC Offensive Player of the Month Geno Smith. Arizona has an improving defense but one that still gives up yardage. Carroll is known for his conservative style, and will often err for field goal attempts rather than going for it on short fourth downs.
This has a danger of missing if the Seahawks fall behind and need touchdowns in the second half. However, they are only slight underdogs, and if they are ahead for some or most of the game, Carroll will be happy to take three points.
Myers is an impressive 17-of-18 on field goals this season and has made two or more in six consecutive games. I believe that streak will continue here.
Seahawks QB Geno Smith under 22.5 pass completions (+100)
This looks like a worthy underdog play to me. The Cardinals tend to be an aggressive defense, and I doubt that changes going up against a pair of rookie tackles. Plenty of blitzing generally means one of three things: a sack, an incompletion or a solid chunk of yardage. No matter the outcome, that is a good thing for this prop bet because it means the total completions will remain down.
Smith leads the NFL in completion percentage at 72.7 and is really having an amazing season. He is No. 4 in ESPN’s Total QBR and No. 4 in passer rating. While it’s been an impressive eight games, we are still in small sample size territory.
I don’t know if his true talent level translates to this type of accuracy or efficiency, which is why I’m going to take the under here at good value.
This week’s prop bets record: 3-0
Overall: 45-38
