It’s a Halloween edition of Monday Night Football prop bets. Hopefully tonight is a treat for all of us and not a trick.
My pick for the game can be found below after a 12-2 start to the week against the spread.
Here are the three prop bets I like best:
Bengals QB Joe Burrow under 34.5 pass attempts (-130)
Burrow has been on fire over the past five games. He is averaging 312 passing yards per contest with 12 touchdowns, one interception and a passer rating of 117.2.
I’m not going to bet against him in the passing yardage category, but I do wonder about the volume of work in this game. The Browns would love to take the air out of the ball and shorten the game, which will mean plenty of carries for Nick Chubb and Kareem Hunt.
On the flip-side, Cincinnati doesn’t have Ja’Marr Chase in this one, which could mean a bit more focus on the run game now that Joe Mixon is starting to find a groove.
To top it all off, I do think the Bengals will be winning this game in the fourth quarter, and can be judicious with their passing. Add it all together, and I don’t think Burrow will be throwing the ball all around the yard in this matchup.
Browns RB Nick Chubb over 17.5 rush attempts (-115)
This is a big number, especially considering Kareem Hunt tends to siphon off four or five rushing attempts per game. That being said, the Browns’ best shot at winning this game is by pounding the rock, and I expect them to lean heavily on Chubb.
He has 126 carries for 740 yards and eight touchdowns on the season, and is one of only two players in the NFL – alongside Derrick Henry – to average more than 100 rushing yards per game this year. Workload concerns are always there with running backs, but Cleveland is 2-5 and desperate for a win to keep its playoff hopes alive, so I believe Chubb will be counted on early and often.
I’d like to see Chubb at 15 rushing attempts by the end of the third quarter, because things could get dicey in the fourth if Cleveland is trailing. However, the Browns are only a three-point underdog, and if the game is close he will play a huge role throughout. The Bengals are No. 10 in run defense, per Football Outsiders, but even better against the pass, and Cleveland has no choice but to rely on Chubb tonight.
Browns WR Amari Cooper over 53.5 receiving yards (-115)
Cleveland doesn’t throw the ball a bunch, but when it does, Cooper is the go-to guy. He is averaging 60.3 receiving yards per game and has 59 targets in seven contests. The Bengals are doing a nice job against the pass this year but Cooper is talented enough to make an impact.
It has been a little boom or bust this season for Cooper, who has four games of 74 or more yards and two of 17 or fewer. But the targets have remained steady, and this is a figure that he should be able to reach with four grabs. I like the over here as Cooper is the one player I trust in the Browns’ aerial attack.
This Week’s Props Bet Record: 1-5
Overall: 40-37
