I have a feeling this is going to be a Purdy good betting Sunday.
Here are my predictions for Week 14:
Here are three prop bets I like:
49ers QB Brock Purdy over 30.5 pass attempts (+100 at BetMGM)
Are the 49ers going to ask their seventh-round rookie to chuck the ball downfield consistently? No. But I think he will throw it more than the oddsmakers project.
San Francisco has some of the best yards-after-catch skill players in the NFL, and coach Kyle Shanahan will want to get the ball in their hands. Purdy had a low average depth of target when he replaced Jimmy Garropolo in Sunday’s win over the Dolphins, but he still threw the ball 37 times in 76 snaps.
The Buccaneers are very good against the run, so Shanahan may decide on a number of bubble screens, slants and other short-route options to get the ball to their playmakers in space. Purdy will be the definition of a game manager in this one but the short passes also mean longer drives, and thus, more attempts.
The 49ers need to have trust in Purdy in order to make a true playoff run and it will be shown in this game against Tampa Bay.
Titans QB Ryan Tannehill over 197.5 pass yards (-115 at DraftKings)
Tannehill is averaging 211.7 passing yards per game and is going against a Jacksonville pass defense that is rated No. 31 in the NFL by Football Outsiders. Jared Goff just threw for 340 yards against this group and I think Tannehill will have both the efficiency numbers and the volume to put up at least 200 yards in this showdown.
While the absence of A.J. Brown this season has hurt, Tannehill has still found ways to move the ball with a subpar group of pass-catchers. Obviously Derrick Henry makes this offense go, but Tannehill is a steady quarterback who can get the job done.
Tannehill isn’t exactly a prolific thrower, but I’m not sold that the favored Titans will be winning this game late, which means he could be forced to air it out while attempting to rally. If that happens, the over is the slam-dunk pick.
Seahawks TE Noah Fant over 28.5 receiving yards (-115 at Caesars)
Seattle’s main weapons are receivers DK Metcalf and Tyler Lockett, but Fant has carved out a nice little role for himself recently.
He is averaging 3.8 catches for 51.5 yards over the past four games, as quarterback Geno Smith has been looking his way consistently. The Panthers are middling in stopping the pass and Fant is elusive enough to add some yards-after-catch to his total when the ball comes his way.
The danger of this one is that the Seahawks get far ahead and don’t throw as much, but Smith has been relied on heavily by coach Pete Carroll, and the spread isn’t big enough to be that worried about a blowout.
Additionally, Seattle could be down to third- and fourth-string running backs if Kenneth Walker doesn’t play, as expected, which could result in a heavier lean toward the pass.
I believe Fant’s strong streak of production will continue against the Panthers as he reaches 29 receiving yards.
This week’s prop bets record: 2-1
Overall: 68-63
