Quarterbacks and kickers. That’s where I’m going with my three prop bets for Sunday.
Here are my football picks against the spread after hitting on the Bills Thursday night.
These are the prop bets I like.
Broncos QB Russell Wilson over 10.5 rush yards (-105 at DraftKings)
Wilson is a long way off from his halcyon rushing days, which is why this prop is so low. However, I do like the value here, especially considering it is the underdog bet.
The Broncos have tried the quick game on offense quite a bit this season, with very little success. It is past time for them to go back to Wilson’s bread and butter, which is the play-action deep shots.
If Denver does switch up its philosophy, it means more time holding the ball for Wilson as he waits for his receivers to get down the field, and thus a higher likelihood of scrambles.
The Broncos are big underdogs in this matchup, which means they will likely be passing a lot late in the contest. Wilson still has solid speed, and two rushing attempts could get him past this number if he finds some room to run.
The Broncos need to do something different because their offense is putrid, and that could mean a better rushing result.
Jets QB Mike White under 248.5 passing yards (-115 at WynnBet)
Mike White was absolutely dominant against the Bears in his season debut last week. But he’s still Mike White. The Vikings are a tougher challenge, and I think New York is going to play pretty conservatively to lean on its defense and running game in order to go for this upset win.
White threw a bunch of interceptions last season and needs to rein that in. I’m sure that has been a point of emphasis from the coaching staff and my guess is that the Jets try to put him in advantageous positions by being selective when taking downfield shots.
I do think the Jets are going to be competitive in this game, which is important for the under to hit. White could be good again but I don’t think he gets to 249 passing yards.
Rams K Matt Gay under 5.5 points (-125 at DraftKings)
There is a field goals made prop for Gay and under 1.5 is a -175 favorite. I agree that he is unlikely to kick two or more field goals, and if that’s the case, this under 5.5 points wager is the more attractive option at -125 odds.
If Gay finishes with one field goal, he will need to connect on three extra points in order to reach six points. The Rams are projected to score only 16.5 points, so it would be an upset if they scored three touchdowns in this game.
The offense is going to be without a host of key players, including Matthew Stafford, Cooper Kupp and Allen Robinson. And even in the unlikely scenario in which Los Angeles does score three touchdowns, there is always the chance they go for two on one of them if trailing.
Add it all up, and I like these odds quite a bit, especially compared to the field goals prop.
Prop Bets Record This Week: 1-2
Overall: 65-57
