We know the turkey and stuffing is coming out on Thursday. How about a little extra cheddar to go with our holiday meals?
Here are my predictions against the spread for the Thanksgiving Day football games and the rest of the slate.
Here are three prop bets I like, one for each game:
Lions QB Jared Goff over 245.5 pass yards (-113 at FanDuel)
It’s been a solid season for Goff, who is averaging 7.5 yards per pass attempt and 244.2 passing yards per game. Wide receiver Amon-Ra St. Brown looks healthy again while D.J. Chark should be back up to speed in this game.
The Bills are heavy favorites in this game, and their excellent pass defense won’t make it easy on Goff. However, if he can get a decent amount of yardage through the first three quarters, chances are he will need to bomb away late to attempt a comeback.
One key for me is the Detroit offensive line, which is one of the more impressive groups in the NFL. Immense pressure would make it tough for this over to hit, but I think the unit will be able to give Goff time, even against a strong Bills pass-rush.
Even if Goff isn’t piling up the yardage, keep the faith, because he could zoom by this number late in the contest.
Giants RB Saquon Barkley under 17.5 rushing attempts (-120 at DraftKings)
Barkley has racked up the carries this season, averaging 21.3 per game through 10 contests. At first glance this number may look low, but it’s not.
New York is close to a double-digit underdog in this game, and I agree with that spread. Barkley will get plenty of carries to start the game, but if the Giants are in rally mode late, they will be forced to go almost exclusively to the air.
Furthermore, the Cowboys are good against the run and great against the pass this year, which likely means a lack of extended drives.
Barkley has gotten a bunch of carries in victories this season, but is averaging only 16.3 in losses. This is a high number of rushing attempts, and I don’t think he gets there.
Vikings QB Kirk Cousins under 253.5 passing yards (-120 at BetMGM)
The Patriots are putting the absolute clamps on opposing quarterbacks, as they are No. 1 in the NFL in pass defense DVOA. Even though Cousins is a good player, he is not the type of talent that can overcome this and put up big numbers.
The Patriots are only allowing 5.8 yards per pass attempt this year and have been even better over the past month. The game script also points toward the under, because Minnesota is a slight favorite to win this game.
If the Vikings are ahead late in the game, or even if they are trailing but close, Cousins will not be relied on to air it out. I think Minnesota will choose a conservative game plan which keeps Cousins to 253 yards or fewer.
Last week’s prop bets record: 3-5
Overall: 61-52
