The NFL regular season is just around the corner. Who is the team to beat, who will surprise, and who will disappoint?
Here are my thoughts.
1. Buffalo Bills
The Bills have the most complete team in the NFL. Josh Allen is a supremely talented quarterback who is flanked with talent, the defense should be among the best in the league, and the schedule gives Buffalo a great chance to finish as the all-important No. 1 seed heading into the playoffs. I agree with the oddsmakers. This is the team to beat.
2. Los Angeles Chargers
I love what Los Angeles did this offseason, re-signing wide receiver Mike Williams to keep the continuity on offense while adding edge rusher Khalil Mack and cornerback J.C. Jackson to the Joey Bosa-Derwin James duo on defense. I picked Justin Herbert to win MVP and if the Chargers’ quarterback indeed takes that kind of leap, Los Angeles will be in the thick of Super Bowl contention.
Here are my preseason predictions for MVP, Coach of the Year, Comeback POY and the other individual awards: https://t.co/bUJdNoZkJc
— Kyle Odegard (@Kyle_Odegard) September 1, 2022
3. Tampa Bay Buccaneers
The offensive line has been hit by personnel departures and injuries, which is a concern. However, Tom Brady regularly processes and gets the ball out so quickly that it doesn’t matter. The wide receiver core of Mike Evans, Chris Godwin and Julio Jones is ridiculously talented, while the defense is also fantastic. Tampa is my clear favorite in the NFC.
4. Kansas City Chiefs
It’s going to be an interesting year in K.C. Tyreek Hill is now with the Dolphins and the schedule is daunting. Then again, this team still has quarterback Patrick Mahomes and coach Andy Reid to lead the way. I could easily see the Chiefs being a Super Bowl contender again in 2022, but for the first time in a while, the floor has been lowered for this group.
5. San Francisco 49ers
This is one of the most complete rosters in the NFL, with game-changing talent on both sides of the ball. The question: Can the 49ers get good enough quarterback play to make it back to the NFC Championship game or beyond? Trey Lance has fantastic upside but is raw and unproven. It makes me feel better that Jimmy Garoppolo is the backup just in case things don’t go as planned. The 49ers are a divisive team. I think they will win the division while others could easily make an argument that they finish below .500.
6. Cincinnati Bengals
The Bengals shocked the NFL world by advancing all the way to the Super Bowl last season. Many are projecting a step back in 2022, but I really liked the offseason moves to shore up the offensive line. The passing game efficiency might not be the same as last year, but if Joe Burrow gets better protection, this is a group that should still have one of the most lethal offenses in the NFL, and that puts Cincy among the elite to begin the year.
Here is my game-by-game prediction for the 2022 Bengals: https://t.co/CJzgbQ1rFV
— Kyle Odegard (@Kyle_Odegard) September 6, 2022
7. Baltimore Ravens
The injury bug was a Goliath Beetle last season, as Baltimore’s season was defined by all of the players that ended up on the sidelines. But the health has been much better this preseason and now Lamar Jackson and Co. are poised to return to their perch as one of the best teams in the NFL.
8. Los Angeles Rams
The Rams are the defending Super Bowl champions and have a talented core returning. However, the losses of Von Miller, Odell Beckham, Jr. and Andrew Whitworth cannot be overlooked. Furthermore, I can’t help but wonder if quarterback Matthew Stafford and wide receiver Cooper Kupp are in line for regression after a great 2021. This is going to be a very good team, but if one or two of the superstars has a down year or gets injured, the Rams may take a slight step back.
9. Philadelphia Eagles
GM Howie Roseman had a terrific offseason, adding wide receiver A.J. Brown, edge rusher Haason Reddick, cornerback James Bradberry, defensive tackle Jordan Davis and safety C.J. Gardner-Johnson to a roster that was already pretty talented. All eyes will be on quarterback Jalen Hurts this season, but he has everything needed to succeed.
10. Denver Broncos
The Broncos made a blockbuster trade for quarterback Russell Wilson this offseason and their offense has the potential to be downright scary. They are in the vaunted AFC West with the Chargers and the Chiefs, but Denver is good enough to make a run at the division title and the Super Bowl if everything clicks in Wilson’s first season.
11. Dallas Cowboys
There has been a lot of focus on what Dallas lost this offseason, highlighted by wideout Amari Cooper in a trade and left tackle Tyron Smith to injury. But Dak Prescott and CeeDee Lamb are back to lead an offense that can still be good, and the defense has several playmakers, highlighted by burgeoning superstar Micah Parsons.
12. Green Bay Packers
This low, eh? I still think Green Bay wins the NFC North, but with something like a 10-7 record, not like the dominance of the past couple years. Aaron Rodgers is the back-to-back MVP so doubt him at your own risk, but I think the Green Bay offense is going to take a step back without Davante Adams, and I think the team’s close-game luck will disappear in 2022.
13. New Orleans Saints
Defense doesn’t get very much attention these days, but New Orleans has a potentially dominant unit. Add in a revamped wide receiver core and the return of quarterback Jameis Winston, and I think this team will grab a wild card spot.
14. Miami Dolphins
Tua Tagovailoa has been given all the resources possible to help him succeed in 2022. Tyreek Hill and Jaylen Waddle are an electric wide receiver duo, while Mike Gesicki, Chase Edmonds and Cedrick Wilson round out a potent skill group. Terron Armstead’s presence at left tackle will help the offensive line, but at the end of the day, it’s on Tua to prove he’s a franchise quarterback this year.
15. Minnesota Vikings
The Vikings always seem to be sitting around .500, and I think that will be the case again this season. The offense has a chance to take a leap with a new philosophy, but even this analytics guy questions whether quarterback Kirk Cousins can excel enough to get Minnesota into legitimate NFC contention.
16. Arizona Cardinals
Kyler Murray is one of the best quarterbacks in the NFL, but the holes on defense are notable. The Cardinals are relying on several players who are older, injury-prone or both heading into 2022. Like last year, attrition could be a factor as the season goes along, and the schedule is brutal.
Here is my game-by-game prediction for the 2022 Cardinals:https://t.co/YkftC4S1kY
— Kyle Odegard (@Kyle_Odegard) September 5, 2022
17. Las Vegas Raiders
Teams like Arizona and Las Vegas have intriguing upside because the potential of an elite passing game lingers. Both teams play in tough divisions and have areas of extreme weakness. It will be interesting to see if the Cardinals or the Raiders, who added Davante Adams and Chandler Jones this offseason, can make the leap to contender.
18. Indianapolis Colts
The Colts have the luxury of an easy division, and the roster is solid. Can aging quarterback Matt Ryan turn back the clock and put up a solid campaign? It’s a fair question to ask, which is why Indy starts this low.
19. Pittsburgh Steelers
The Steelers somehow made their way into the postseason a year ago despite a terrible passing attack. Even though Mitchell Trubisky never panned out in Chicago, he may be an upgrade from end-of-career Ben Roethlisberger. The defense could be elite, which gives Pittsburgh a high enough floor to hold intrigue if the offense finds some rhythm.
20. New England Patriots
The Patriots actually finished with a plus-159 point-differential last season, but I’m not buying them as contenders this season. The offense does not feel like it can compete with the firepower in the AFC, and the defense lost J.C. Jackson, who was a pivotal piece.
21. Detroit Lions
A little optimistic about Detroit, are we? The offensive line has potential to be very good, and I like the skill group, which includes wide receiver Amon-Ra St. Brown, tight end T.J. Hockenson and running back D’Andre Swift. If Jared Goff can play competently at quarterback, don’t be surprised if the Lions make serious strides in 2022.
22. Tennessee Titans
Tennessee somehow finished with the best record in the AFC last year. I don’t see any way that is duplicated this season. Quarterback Ryan Tannehill regressed last year and star running back Derrick Henry is getting to the point where his efficiency could start to plummet after such a heavy workload. Add in the exit of A.J. Brown, and I think the Titans take a major step back.
23. Carolina Panthers
Baker Mayfield is the best quarterback Carolina has had under Matt Rhule, which says more about the Panthers than Baker. The offense has some potential with Christian McCaffrey and D.J. Moore leading the way, and the defense has some players, too. Carolina could be frisky enough to stay in the playoff hunt as long as Mayfield doesn’t implode.
24. Cleveland Browns
The Browns got what they deserved in the Deshaun Watson case, as he is suspended for 11 games, which could torpedo the season. Cleveland has a good roster but it will be hard to compete with Jacoby Brissett at quarterback.
25. Jacksonville Jaguars
I think the Jaguars are a bottom-10 team in the NFL to start the season, but this is still a big leap from where they ended 2021. Doug Pederson should bring some stability as head coach, and there is definite upside because Trevor Lawrence has all the tools to be a star quarterback. The AFC South is bad enough that Jacksonville could legitimately win it if a few bounces go their way.
26. Washington Commanders
The defense should be pretty good provided Chase Young returns sooner rather than later. Carson Wentz is meh. This whole team is meh, actually.
27. Chicago Bears
Justin Fields looked pretty good in the preseason and the defense has enough talent to keep this team competitive. The Bears are short on impact talent on offense but if Fields can blossom in Year 2 they could be better than expected.
28. New York Giants
I like the moves the Giants made this offseason, but this is going to take some time to build. Daniel Jones is not the answer at quarterback, and the defense could be awful.
29. Houston Texans
Davis Mills was pretty impressive as a rookie, but this team has so few playmakers on either side of the ball. It’s another rebuilding year in Houston.
30. Atlanta Falcons
Kyle Pitts looks like he’s going to be great. We can move on.
31. Seattle Seahawks
Even with the presence of Tyler Lockett and DK Metcalf, it’s hard to envision the Seattle offense doing much of anything because of its quarterback situation. Russell Wilson covered up a lot of holes near the end of his Seattle tenure and they will be glaring in 2022.
32. New York Jets
The more things change, the more they stay the same. The Zach Wilson/Joe Flacco quarterback duo is dreadful, and while the Jets added some intriguing young pieces in the draft, it’s hard to count on them making humongous impacts as rookies. The Jets start the season in the power rankings basement.
