There is only one chance to predict the playoffs from start to finish, and I’m here to take it. The Green Bay Packers and Kansas City Chiefs are the betting favorites to make the Super Bowl, but I don’t think either team gets there.
Here is my round-by-round look at how I believe the postseason will shake out, with each team’s DraftKings Super Bowl odds in parentheses:
Wild Card Round
AFC
Bengals (+1800) def. Raiders (+6000)
Bills (+800) def. Patriots (+2200)
Chiefs (+450) def. Steelers (+9000)
NFC
Buccaneers (+800) def. Eagles (+6000)
Rams (+1000) def. Cardinals (+2500)
Cowboys (+1200) def. 49ers (+2000)
Not much drama on the AFC side as I go chalk with the home teams. The Raiders may actually be able to put a scare into Cincy if Maxx Crosby and the pass-rush gets after Joe Burrow, but the Bengals are the better team. I also went with the favorites on the NFC side, although San Francisco is playing well enough to give the Cowboys a serious run. That showdown should be a lot of fun. If the Cardinals can run the ball effectively in Los Angeles, they will have a shot at the upset, but this is not a good matchup for them.
Since 2003, in division games in the NFL Playoffs the underdog has gone 13-8-1 (62%) ATS per @Bet_Labs.
Patriots +4 at Bills
Cardinals +4 at Rams— John Ewing (@johnewing) January 14, 2022
Divisional Round
AFC
Titans (+850) def. Bengals
Bills def. Chiefs
NFC
Rams def. Packers (+380)
Buccaneers def. Cowboys
A lot of people are going to be picking the Bengals to continue their unlikely season with a win over Tennessee to advance to the AFC Championship game. While the Titans clearly aren’t the best team in the conference, they will be rested and playing at home, with star running back Derrick Henry expected to be on the field, so I think they survive. The Bills-Chiefs game should be great, with Buffalo’s secondary well-equipped to keep Patrick Mahomes and the Chiefs offense from exploding. If Josh Allen avoids mistakes, Buffalo can win this game.
Players with 5,000 yards of total offense this season (pass yds + rush yards + yards lost to sacks)
Tom Brady — 5,253
Justin Herbert — 5,102
Patrick Mahomes — 5,074
Josh Allen — 5,006#Buccaneers #Chargers #Chiefs #Bills pic.twitter.com/myj0rjQBa9— Jeff Kerr (@JeffKerrCBS) January 10, 2022
On the NFC side, the Rams may have struggled at Lambeau in the regular season, but now Odell Beckham, Jr. and Von Miller are both fully integrated into the schemes. Aaron Rodgers is great and he’s going to make plays, but the Los Angeles offense will be able to keep up. The Rams have three defensive superstars, and either Aaron Donald, Jalen Ramsey or Miller will make a game-changing play. The Bucs have lost two star receivers, but Tom Brady has done more with less before. Tampa should be able to outduel the Cowboys in a shootout.
Conference Championship
AFC
Bills def. Titans
NFC
Rams def. Buccaneers
Whichever team escapes from the Bills-Chiefs heavyweight battle is almost assuredly going to make the Super Bowl. The Titans did beat Buffalo in the regular season, but it’s not going to happen again. Josh Allen threw for 353 yards and three touchdowns in the first matchup. He should play well, while the defense has a much better performance against Henry, A.J. Brown and Co.
The Rams have a Herculean task to reach the Super Bowl, as they may have to beat the Cardinals, Packers and Buccaneers to get there. But I think they do it. A big issue this year has been Matthew Stafford interceptions, but when he keeps the ball away from the wrong-colored jersey, the results have been impressive.
Should Derrick Henry (+600) Be The Favorite To Lead The NFL Playoffs In Rushing Yards?#NFLPlayoffs #NFLTwitter pic.twitter.com/rWAtR4wSrW
— SportsGrid (@SportsGrid) January 13, 2022
Los Angeles has a strong offensive line, and Beckham has become a solid No. 2 option behind Cooper Kupp in the passing game. The trio of Mike Evans, Chris Godwin and Antonio Brown would have been impossible to slow down, but with only Evans now available, the Rams can put Ramsey on him and let the other 10 defenders deal with everyone else.
Super Bowl
It’s been a weird season for the Bills, who lost every one of their games that were decided by a touchdown or less and finished with a less-than-inspiring 11-6 record. But as loyal readers know, I’m much more interested in point-differential than win-loss records, and all signs point to a Buffalo emergence in the playoffs.
Josh Allen’s rookie contract has allowed the front office to stack the roster on both sides of the ball, and there are few teams in the playoffs that can dominate in both phases like the Bills.
Los Angeles is a very good team and this would be a great matchup. But after a bumpy regular season, look for the Bills to straighten everything out in the playoffs. And this time, instead of losing the Super Bowl like all of those Buffalo teams in the 1990s, they will get the job done by claiming the championship.
The pick: Bills 27, Rams 20
