2022 NFL Futures Betting: Which NFC Underdog Can Steal a Playoff Spot?

There are currently seven teams in the NFC that have a really good shot at the postseason. 

According to Football Outsiders, the Eagles, Vikings, Cowboys, Seahawks, Buccaneers, Giants and 49ers all have above a 75% chance of qualifying for the playoffs, either as division winners or wild card entrants.

Philadelphia, Minnesota and Dallas are virtual shoo-ins based on their records and caliber of play thus far in 2022. However, could some of the others be vulnerable?

Here are my three best values for teams currently on the outside looking in at a postseason berth:

3. Arizona Cardinals (4-6)

Odds to make playoffs: +800 at DraftKings
Odds to win NFC West: +5000 at BetMGM

The number that intrigues me here is the divisional odds. Arizona is 50/1 to claim the NFC West, and even though there is an extremely slim chance it happens, those are the type of odds worth taking a flier on.

That number didn’t move this week even though Arizona beat the Rams on Sunday while division-leading Seattle fell to the Bucs.

The Cardinals are two games behind the Seahawks (ostensibly three because they lost the tiebreaker) and 1.5 games behind the 49ers in the divisional race. It’s an uphill battle, and there isn’t much of an analytical case for this to happen because Arizona has been below average in offense, defense and special teams all year.

However, the NFL is famous for its parity and flukiness, so here is my reasoning for taking this longshot wager: the Cardinals have two games remaining with the 49ers. Winning the division would be based on a sweep of those two contests, and while it’s very unlikely, I peg it at around 10/1. If the Cardinals happen to pull off a pair of shockers, they would have the tiebreaker and would only need to match San Francisco in their other games.

Another strong game from Rondale Moore on Sunday. It’s a shame we haven’t seen Rondale, Nuk and Hollywood on the field together, but hopefully that changes down the stretch.

— Kyle Odegard (@Kyle_Odegard) November 14, 2022

Even if Arizona pulls that off, there is no guarantee Seattle crumbles, but based on everyone’s preseason forecast, it’s not a certainty the Seahawks remain strong the rest of the way. The Cardinals know from experience that a team can look great for half a season and then implode.

There are two reasons I think the Cardinals have a small window of opportunity the rest of the way: the defense continues to ascend, and the passing game could go from woeful to effective if the Cardinals can finally get Kyler Murray, DeAndre Hopkins, Hollywood Brown and Rondale Moore on the field together at the same time.

It hasn’t happened this season but at 50/1 odds, but there is enough intrigue there to make this a worthwhile lottery ticket.

2. Washington Commanders (4-5)

Odds to make playoffs: +600 at DraftKings

The Commanders currently have the best record of the non-playoff teams in the NFC, which certainly means something. And while it looks like a near-certainty they lose tonight to the Eagles as double-digit underdogs, stranger things have happened, and that 15-to-20% chance of an upset win can’t be counted out quite yet.

Even if Washington loses to Philadelphia, its next four games are against the Texans, Falcons, and the Giants twice. New York is 7-2 but certainly looks like the least talented of the teams currently in line for the postseason.

Washington would need to go 3-1 or 4-0 in that stretch and beat New York twice to have a shot at catching the Giants, but it’s not completely out of the question. The Commanders then finish with the 49ers, Browns and Cowboys, which is not an easy task. Washington might need to get lucky and face Cleveland and Dallas teams short on motivation in order to finish strong.

Washington has stayed afloat despite its quarterback issues, and marginal offensive improvement down the stretch could result in the Commanders making a surprising playoff push.

1. Green Bay Packers (4-6)

Odds to make playoffs: +350 at DraftKings

The Packers aren’t catching the Vikings in the NFC North, but a late rally to beat the Cowboys has kept their season alive.

Despite many high-profile issues, Green Bay is No. 14 in Team DVOA and has a top-10 offense. That is enough to suggest that there could still be some magic left down the stretch, especially with Aaron Rodgers at quarterback.

The Packers need a team above them in the standings to falter, but I’m assuming they will be favored in five of their seven games down the stretch, so a strong finish could happen.

This wager would have been better last week before the upset of the Cowboys, but the odds are still intriguing, and I think Green Bay has the best shot to make the postseason among the group on the outside looking in.