The dust is finally settling on one of the more eventful offseasons in recent NFL history.
While there will still be some moves in the coming months, the majority of key pieces are set around the league. How have all the changes affected the Super Bowl landscape?
Here is a look at the ten teams with the best betting odds to win the 2023 Super Bowl. Odds via DraftKings on May 4.
T-9. Cleveland Browns (+1700)
The Browns stumbled to a disappointing 8-9 finish a season ago, but there is renewed hope after the acquisition of quarterback Deshaun Watson this offseason. Cleveland took on a player with 22 allegations of sexual misconduct, gave up major draft capital and signed him to a $230 million extenstion with every dollar guaranteed, so there is substantial risk. But Watson is one of the best quarterbacks in the NFL and the oddsmakers feel like he gives a quality Cleveland roster a puncher’s chance, even in a loaded division.
T-9. Dallas Cowboys (+1700)
The Cowboys had one of the most efficient seasons in the NFL in 2021, playing well on both sides of the ball. But their NFC wild card showing against the 49ers was a disaster, and then they lost some talented pieces this offseason, including wide receiver Amari Cooper and right tackle La’el Collins. Dallas is the team to beat in the NFC East and has one of the easier paths to the playoffs, but must prove it can be elite. A bounceback season from quarterback Dak Prescott is a crucial step.
T-7. Denver Broncos (+1600)
This is what a trade for one of the best quarterbacks in the NFL will do for you. The Broncos were an average team last season but have now added Russell Wilson to the fold. Denver’s Super Bowl odds would likely be even higher but it has the unfortunate task of battling the Chiefs and the Chargers in the AFC West. The Broncos must prove themselves when the season comes around, but it does feel like there is Super Bowl upside with this group because of Wilson’s presence.
T-7. Los Angeles Chargers (+1600)
It’s become increasingly common for a fringe playoff team to become an outright contender when it has a star quarterback on a rookie contract. Justin Herbert’s low salary has allowed Los Angeles to add Khalil Mack and J.C. Jackson in free agency, and the offensive line was subsequently bulked up in the draft. The Chargers seem to have all the pieces in place for a legitimate run, although winning the division is still going to be tough because of the presence of Denver and Kansas City.
6. San Francisco 49ers (+1400)
The betting markets and the analytics community have a lot of respect for San Francisco, which is evident with these odds. San Francisco has a huge question mark at quarterback, and in a league that is dominated by them, it’s reason for pause. However, the 49ers’ roster is so stocked with elite talent that San Francisco should be competitive with average play under center, and has championship upside if Trey Lance (or Jimmy G!) can reach top-10 status. The 49ers have one of the highest floors in the NFL, but the ceiling is still unknown.
T-3. Los Angeles Rams (+1000)
The Rams are the defending champions and bring back many of their key pieces. However, Von Miller went to Buffalo, Andrew Whitworth retired and Odell Beckham, Jr. is unsigned while rehabbing his torn ACL. Los Angeles is certainly still a viable contender, but the roster is a tad worse this year. In the end, the Rams’ fortunes will likely again come down to the play of Matthew Stafford, Cooper Kupp, Aaron Donald and Jalen Ramsey. They were awesome last year and would love an encore.
T-3. Green Bay Packers (+1000)
There is a lot of consternation about Green Bay’s wide receiver group, and some may think these odds are too favorable. But there are a few things working in the Packers’ favor. First and foremost, they have quarterback Aaron Rodgers to lead the way. They also have a talented offensive line and solid defense. Green Bay is also in one of the most lopsided divisions in the NFL, with the Lions and Bears both in rebuilding mode and the Vikings expected to hover around .500.
T-3. Kansas City Chiefs (+1000)
The Chiefs have gone into the past few seasons as either the Super Bowl favorite or the team to beat in the AFC, but that’s not the case this season. Star wide receiver Tyreek Hill was traded to the Dolphins, safety Tyrann Mathieu left in free agency, and Kansas City is going to start feeling the crunch of paying Patrick Mahomes a market-value quarterback salary. The roster may be starting to thin out, but Mahomes is still the best quarterback in the NFL, and tight end Travis Kelce will lead a skill group which should still put up big numbers. Even in the best division in football, Kansas City remains on top, and another title is certainly viable.
2. Tampa Bay Buccaneers (+700)
The Bucs lost in the NFC Divisional Round to the Rams and then Tom Brady retired, seemingly signaling the end of their contention status. But then Brady came back, and now Tampa is the team to beat in the NFC. Coach Bruce Arians stepped aside, but former defensive coordinator Todd Bowles has head coaching experience, and the transition should be a smooth one. The Bucs have the most talented team from top to bottom in the NFC and play in a division that includes the woeful Panthers and Falcons. The Bucs will aim for a second title in three years this season.
1. Buffalo Bills (+650)
The Bills were inconsistent a season ago, but they were firing on all cylinders in the playoffs. Buffalo and Kansas City played one of the most memorable postseason games of all-time, and if the Bills had one or two things go differently, they may have won and then went on to capture the championship. Everything is lining up for a serious run this season. Josh Allen only has a cap hit of $16.3 million this season and the Bills’ roster is absolutely stacked around him. The Von Miller addition was the icing on the cake, as Buffalo is primed to be the team to beat heading into the 2022 season.
Super Bowl odds for the other 22 teams:
11. Cincinnati Bengals (+1800)
12. Baltimore Ravens (+2200)
13. Indianapolis Colts (+2200)
14. Arizona Cardinals (+2500)
15. Tennessee Titans (+3000)
T-16. Las Vegas Raiders (+3500)
T-16. Miami Dolphins (+3500)
T-16. Philadelphia Eagles (+3500)
19. New England Patriots (+4000)
20. Minnesota Vikings (+4500)
21. New Orleans Saints (+5000)
T-22. Pittsburgh Steelers (+6500)
T-22. Washington Commanders (+6500)
T-24. Seattle Seahawks (+10000)
T-24. Chicago Bears (+10000)
T-24. New York Giants (+10000)
T-24. Carolina Panthers (+10000)
T-24. New York Jets (+10000)
29. Jacksonville Jaguars (+13000)
T-30. Atlanta Falcons (+15000)
T-30. Detroit Lions (+15000)
32. Houston Texans (+20000)
