The NFL season is halfway over, and candidates for the major awards have revealed themselves.
Will the favorites hold on down the stretch? Will upstarts emerge and reward bettors for their faith?
Here are my thoughts on each race. Odds courtesy of FanDuel on November 9:
Most Valuable Player
My preseason pick: QB Justin Herbert, Chargers
Current favorites: QB Patrick Mahomes, Chiefs (+175); Eagles QB Jalen Hurts (+250); Bills QB Josh Allen (+350).
Mahomes is the favorite because he has been nothing short of fantastic this season despite the loss of Tyreek Hill. The Kansas City gunslinger leads the NFL in passing yards (2,605) and touchdowns (21) while leading the Chiefs to a 6-2 record. He makes sense as the favorite, but I’m not going to take him at these odds.
I’m not interested in Hurts, either. While he has been very good, the Philadelphia team is beyond stacked, as a plethora of quarterbacks could succeed in that situation. Allen is the quarterback of the best team and has had some MVP moments, but he’s also been inconsistent and is currently dealing with an elbow injury.
I’m going with a darkhorse in this race. Dolphins quarterback Tua Tagovailoa has missed all or part of three football games this season and Miami has lost them all. In the six games he has played all the way through, the Dolphins are undefeated.
Tua leads the NFL in myriad important statistical categories like Total QBR and yards per pass attempt. The Dolphins do not have an exceedingly hard schedule down the stretch and I think Tua will continue to pour it on. The voters will judge whether the missed games are too much for him to win MVP, but his worth has been evident by his presence and absence, which makes the odds intriguing.
My pick: Dolphins QB Tua Tagovailoa (+1100)
Offensive Player of the Year
My preseason pick: Cowboys WR CeeDee Lamb
Current favorites: Dolphins WR Tyreek Hill (+250); Eagles QB Jalen Hurts (+450); Vikings WR Justin Jefferson (+950)
Hill is the favorite to win this award but I’m a bit surprised you can still get him at significant plus money. The speedster already has 76 catches for 1,104 yards on the season, an average of 122.7 yards per game.
Defenses have tried everything to slow him down, but the Dolphins have been adamant about getting him the ball, to great results. Hill is 237 receiving yards ahead of Justin Jefferson, albeit with one more game played, and it’s hard to imagine he relinquishes that lead without an injury. If the Eagles finish with only a loss or two, Hurts could get votes, but he will also be in the MVP discussion.
This one is a no-brainer to me, and the odds here are very enticing.
My pick: Tyreek Hill, Dolphins (+250)
Defensive Player of the Year
My preseason pick: Nick Bosa, 49ers
Current favorites: Cowboys OLB Micah Parsons (-250); Bosa (+1000); Browns OLB Myles Garrett (+1200)
The oddsmakers love Parsons, who is the odds-on favorite to win this award. He’s been great, with eight sacks, two forced fumbles and a defensive touchdown this season. But there is no way I’m taking him because there is no value here.
If Parsons gets hurt or takes a step back, I’m still going to roll with Bosa as the most-likely player to win DPOY. He has 8.5 sacks on the season, and though none of those have resulted in a forced fumble, the talent is there to get a few down the stretch.
I think the 49ers are going to turn it on the rest of the way and win the NFC West, which will help Bosa’s individual chances. These odds make it a solid longshot selection.
My pick: Nick Bosa, 49ers (+1000)
Comeback Player of the Year
My preseason pick: Panthers RB Christian McCaffrey
Current favorites: Seahawks QB Geno Smith (-140); Giants running back Saquon Barkley (+160); 49ers RB Christian McCaffrey (+1100)
McCaffrey is still in the running, albeit with a different team now, but I agree with the oddsmakers that this is Geno Smith’s award to lose.
The Seahawks have -250 odds to make the playoffs, and if they get there, I don’t see any way Smith misses out on this award. Some could parse the meaning of it since he is not coming back from an injury, but I think most will vote for him.
Smith has been a revelation this year, and everything Seattle is doing looks sustainable. The Giants are a great story thus far but I’m skeptical that they will be as good in the second half of the season, which will take some luster away from Barkley. McCaffrey is tempting because he could very well go nuclear in the San Francisco offense, but I like the favorite here.
My pick: Seahawks QB Geno Smith (-140)
Coach of the Year
My preseason pick: Eagles coach Nick Sirianni
Current favorites: Sirianni (-150); Vikings HC Kevin O’Connell (+800); Seahawks HC Pete Carroll (+800)
Sirianni was +1800 before the season so my futures bet there is sitting pretty. It makes sense for him to be the favorite because Philadelphia has a loaded team and an easy schedule. The Eagles seem destined to finish as the No. 1 seed in the NFC and could certainly get the best record in the NFL.
Sirianni is still a fine pick even at these odds because Philly is in such a good spot. If I rode with an underdog, it would definitely be Carroll. The Seahawks’ expectations were extremely low to begin the year, as most expected them to be among the worst teams in the NFL.
But Carroll has pushed all the right buttons and is getting great performances from Geno Smith, a star-studded rookie class and others. Seattle is expected to duke it out with the 49ers for NFC West supremacy, and if the Seahawks win the division, Carroll will be in the conversation.
I’ll keep my preseason ticket on Sirianni and sprinkle a little on Carroll to hedge.
My pick: Pete Carroll, Seahawks (+800)
Offensive Rookie of the Year
My preseason pick: Steelers QB Kenny Pickett
Current favorites: Seahawks RB Kenneth Walker (-135); Texans RB Dameon Pierce (+220); Saints WR Chris Olave (+750)
I still like my thought process of choosing the quarterback over the muddled list of skill players before the season, but Pickett has not been very good. A couple of longshots have emerged, as Walker and Pierce could be battling it out for the hardware.
At these odds, though, I really like Olave. He is averaging 77.3 receiving yards per game and already looks like a veteran wide receiver. I’d be surprised if the numbers dip too much, and if New Orleans ends up switching quarterbacks to the gunslinger Jamies Winston, Olave’s numbers could get a boost.
Taking either running back is buying high right now. I like the value of Olave.
My pick: Saints WR Chris Olave (+750)
Defensive Rookie of the Year
My preseason pick: Texans CB Derek Stingley
Current favorites: Jets CB Sauce Gardner (-120); Seahawks CB Tariq Woolen (+210); Lions edge rusher Aidan Hutchinson (+1100)
This definitely feels like a two-player race, and both of these cornerbacks are worthy.
Gardner leads the NFL in passes defensed with 13, has a pair of interceptions and is allowing only 4.4 yards per target and a passer rating of 54.9 when targeted, per Football Reference.
Woolen has four interceptions, a defensive touchdown and is giving up a passer rating of 54.2.
Woolen did a nice job covering DeAndre Hopkins last week and looks like the real deal, but Gardner was a top-5 pick and plays for a Jets team that will be getting a lot of publicity if it makes the playoffs this season.
Woolen’s odds are intriguing, but I think Gardner wins this one in the end.
My pick: Sauce Gardner, Jets (-120)
