2022 NFL Betting Preview: Which Team Will Score the Most Points in 2022?

The Dallas Cowboys led the NFL in scoring a year ago, averaging 31.2 points per game.

The Buffalo Bills enter as the favorites to do so this year, with odds of +600 at BetMGM. Usual suspects like the Kansas City Chiefs and Tampa Bay Buccaneers are also near the top of the list, but there are also some intriguing underdog choices.

Here are my three favorite picks to lead the NFL in points in 2022, based on the accompanying odds:

3. Kansas City Chiefs (+800)

The Chiefs lost firepower this offseason, as superstar wide receiver Tyreek Hill moved on to Miami. So why back Kansas City? Well, first and foremost, quarterback Patrick Mahomes is still leading the charge, and as long as he’s around, the Chiefs will have a chance to score points in bunches. The Chiefs finished fourth in the NFL in scoring last season, sixth in 2020, fifth in 2019 and first in 2018 with Mahomes as the starter. Kansas City has the No. 2 projected offense in the NFL this season, per Football Outsiders, trailing only Tampa Bay. 

The Chiefs should again be potent, and two other factors work in their favor. The first is a potentially porous defense, which means Kansas City could be in its fair share of shootouts, a la the AFC Divisional Game classic against the Bills. And then there is the schedule. Kansas City faces a murderer’s row of opponents.

The Chiefs' schedule is nuts. They play all these teams this year:

* Bills
* Buccaneers
* Chargers (twice)
* Rams
* Broncos (twice)
* Bengals
* 49ers
* Raiders (twice)
* Colts
* Cardinals
* Titans

— Kyle Odegard (@Kyle_Odegard) August 25, 2022

The Chiefs have been elite on offense for years, but would often shut it down early because they were ahead by so much. That’s much less likely to happen this year, which is a good thing in this case.

2. Miami Dolphins (+3000)

The Dolphins finished 22nd in points scored a season ago, so if you are ready to breeze through this section and get to my top choice, it’s understandable. But stay with me here.

Miami loaded up on offense this offseason, adding the aforementioned Hill, star left tackle Terron Armstead, running back Chase Edmonds and others. Jaylen Waddle and Mike Gesicki (maybe?) are still around, giving quarterback Tua Tagovailoa plenty of playmakers. Can Tua throw efficiently enough to get the offense rolling? That’s the big question. But at 30/1 odds it’s a worthy flier.

The Miami defense is projected to be poor, which means that the Dolphins will need to keep their foot on the gas at all times. Among the longshots, this is my favorite pick because of the upside that is present.

1. Arizona Cardinals (+2000)

When coach Kliff Kingsbury came aboard, the expectation was offensive fireworks and defensive struggles. But the Arizona defense has actually been top-10 in DVOA each of the past two seasons, doing much of the heavy lifting. 

That seems likely to change this season, as edge rusher Chandler Jones, linebacker Jordan Hicks, defensive tackle Jordan Phillips and cornerback Robert Alford have departed without any replacements of note. The Arizona defense is projected to be a bottom-five unit this season by Football Outsiders, and even if it’s better than that, the offense is widely expected to carry this team.

The Cardinals are projected to win fewer games than the Texans and Lions this season by Football Outsiders.

Here are the reasons why:https://t.co/4VxOJAHVmo

— Kyle Odegard (@Kyle_Odegard) August 2, 2022

Quarterback Kyler Murray is a star, and the pass-catching quartet of DeAndre Hopkins (minus a six-game suspension), Hollywood Brown, Rondale Moore and Zach Ertz has the chance to be stellar. 

The Cardinals have consistently played with a fast tempo under Kingsbury, and he likes to be aggressive with his fourth-down play-calling, both of which help the scoring cause. Arizona was 11th in points last season at 26.4 points per game, and an uptick seems likely. Like Kansas City, the Cardinals have a tough schedule, and the more shootouts the better to increase the chances of this bet hitting.

These are really enticing odds, as both BetRivers and UniBet have the Cardinals at +1200 to lead the NFL in points. The best value in this case is definitely at BetMGM.