The AFC and NFC Divisional Rounds are on tap this weekend, with some titanic matchups on the docket. The Buffalo Bills will face the Kansas City Chiefs in the marquee showdown, while the Tennessee Titans and Cincinnati Bengals play in the other AFC contest. On the NFC side, the Los Angeles Rams face the Tampa Bay Buccaneers while the Green Bay Packers host the San Francisco 49ers.
My Super Bowl prediction is still alive, and here are my favorite prop bets for the weekend action. Odds courtesy of DraftKings on Saturday morning.
Rams RB Cam Akers (-115) under 47.5 rushing yards
Akers made an unbelievable return from a torn Achilles and carried the ball 17 times in the wild card round, four more than Sony Michel. That game was a heavy run script as the Rams routed the Cardinals, and Akers finished with 55 rushing yards, an average of 3.2 yards per carry.
He could be the primary ball-carrier again in this game, but there are serious doubts about whether he can reach 48 rushing yards. The Buccaneers are fantastic against the run and defensive coordinator Todd Bowles is known for making it a priority to take away that part of an opponent’s game. Furthermore, the Rams could fall behind as the slight underdog, which would make it a pass-heavy game.
Akers’ return is a great story and he could be a key player for the Rams in the playoffs, but this rushing yardage total is too high.
Cam Akers returning from an Achilles injury in less than 6 months is an incredible feat.
As for his value in 2022 though, are we really trusting Sean McVay to feed him the ball? This backfield was a gross committee in 2020 and was unpredictable in 2021.
2020 snap counts: pic.twitter.com/hQRFE8seYN
— Dave Kluge (@DaveKluge) January 21, 2022
Bills TE Dawson Knox (-115) over 40.5 receiving yards
Knox is fresh off a sterling performance against the Patriots, catching five passes for 89 yards and two touchdowns. It was a much better performance than his averages this season, but Knox still registered 39.1 receiving yards per game this year. Knowing that this has the potential to be a serious offensive shootout, Knox seems in line to surpass this total.
The Chiefs were No. 18 in the NFL in coverage against tight ends this season, according to Football Outsiders, allowing an average of 53.2 yards per game. That isn’t all to No. 1 tight ends, but Knox is the only tight end on the Bills that makes an impact in the receiving game and should get plenty of targets.
Chiefs safety Tyrann Mathieu is a great player but he also likes to freelance, which could allow for some open spots in the defense in the middle of the field, and Knox will be there to take advantage. Look for him to have another nice game against the Chiefs and hit the over on this prop.
Packers QB Aaron Rodgers (+185) over 0.5 interceptions
Here is the underdog play of the week. Rodgers rarely throws interceptions, as he had just four on the year and hasn’t thrown one since Week 10 against the Seahawks. It’s clear why the under is the heavy favorite, but this matchup could be ripe for a pick.
The 49ers’ pass-rush was menacing against the Cowboys, and star edge-rusher Nick Bosa is expected to play after suffering a head injury in Dallas. If San Francisco can get Rodgers out of rhythm, it would increase the chances of a wayward pass.
Additionally, consistent pressure will allow the defensive line to get in more passing lanes and possibly deflect passes. Rodgers rarely puts the ball in harm’s way, but if this game is competitive, he will likely attempt between 30 and 40 passes.
The 49ers are good enough up-front to affect Rodgers, and as long as the back seven can make a play, this payout would be a nice one. K’Waun Williams got one last week, and it’s worth the risk to root for duplication because of the way the San Francisco pass-rush is playing.
