After a weekend full of wild card action, all eyes are now on the Cardinals and Rams as they face off on Monday Night Football.
The teams played twice in the regular season, each winning on the road, in a pair of contests that went much differently from each other. The oddsmakers expect this to be a competitive showdown, as the Rams are 3.5-point favorites, according to DraftKings on Monday morning.
Here are my three favorite prop bets for the game:
Kyler Murray (-110) over 6.5 rushing attempts
Murray has only rushed seven or more times in six of his 14 starts this season, and the under is the current favorite. But there are two reasons why the over is the better play on this prop bet.
The first is the state of the Cardinals’ offense. Without DeAndre Hopkins, the once-potent passing game has taken a major hit, and Arizona can no longer rely on dicing teams up through the air. That means that the rushing attack will be of higher focus, and while both Chase Edmonds and James Conner should get their fair share of carries, Murray should be prominently involved on zone reads and designed runs. Cardinals General Manager Steve Keim intimated as much on Friday during an interview with 98.7 FM Arizona Sports.
“Kyler’s ability to beat you with his feet – I don’t want to say that that’s the gameplan, but knowing that it’s a big game and winner goes on to the next step, I would expect him to play at a high level and play with his feet as well at times,” Keim said.
Kyler Murray is one of only two players in NFL history with 11,000+ passing yards and 1,500+ rushing yards in his first three seasons.
— Arizona Cardinals (@AZCardinals) January 2, 2022
The other factor is the Rams’ defensive setup. Defensive tackle Aaron Donald and edge rusher Von Miller are among the best in the NFL at getting after quarterbacks. The Cardinals don’t want to be in too many third-and-long situations because they will lose that battle, so running the ball regularly will be a priority. Los Angeles is not as equipped to stop the run, which is why everything points to a heavy run game for the Cardinals.
And to top it off, the Cardinals’ current iteration of skill players cannot always separate from defenders, which should lead to a few Murray scrambles on pass plays.
Rams WR Cooper Kupp (-115) under 106.5 receiving yards
There is no doubt about it. Kupp has been a monster all season long, which is why this receiving total is so incredibly high. He’s definitely going to have an outsized impact on the game, but I have serious reservations about his ability to reach triple-digits in receiving yards.
One of the main reasons is the Cardinals’ defensive setup. Nickel Byron Murphy is their best cover corner, and he will likely draw the assignment of Kupp for much of the contest. Behind him are a pair of extremely talented safeties in Budda Baker and Jalen Thompson, who will be lurking in the middle of the field.
Double team Cooper Kupp. That should be the defensive game plan tonight. That’s it @Bickley_Marotta @danbickley @Vincemarotta
— Jordan Simone (@JordanSimone38) January 17, 2022
The Cardinals’ big issue is at outside cornerback, where rookie Marco Wilson and another player — possibly newcomer Bashaud Breeland — will line up. Rams quarterback Matthew Stafford should have favorable matchups on the outside for much of the contest and won’t have to force-feed the ball to Kupp if he is being bracketed.
Much of this comes down to the Cardinals’ defensive game plan. Kupp was targeted a whopping 28 times in the two regular season meeting between these teams, and if the Cardinals make it a priority to slow him down, the under on this total is most realistic.
Rams kicker Matt Gay (-130) over 1.5 field goals
We are paying for this one at -130, but it feels like a solid bet. Gay connected on two or more field goals in 12 of the 17 games this season. He was a sparkling 94.1% on the year, which is good, because there is no worse feeling than a kicker getting two field goal attempts in a game and missing one when you choose the over.
The Rams’ offense has always moved the ball efficiently this year and should get into Arizona territory with regularity. However, the Cardinals have a lot of talent on defense, and the group is almost completely healthy heading into this game as star defensive tackle J.J. Watt (shoulder) is expected to play. If the Cardinals can clamp down in the red zone, Gay could be busy.
Both Matt Gay and Johnny Hekker each received one all-pro vote at kicker and punter.
— DOWNTOWN RAMS [DTR] (@DowntownRams) January 14, 2022
The final factor is the conservative nature of coach Sean McVay. On the other sideline, Kliff Kingsbury has shown a penchant for aggressiveness on fourth downs, while McVay usually errs on the side of caution. It’s even more likely McVay chooses field goals if his team is ahead, and as the favorite, it’s more likely than not that will be the case. Gay has only made one field goal in his past two games combined, but look for him to boot two through against the Cardinals.
