2022 NFL Betting Preview: The Three Best Bets To Lead the NFL in Passing Yards

There are two key things to consider when choosing the right quarterback to lead the NFL in passing yards: efficiency and volume.

A bad quarterback will not be in the running because the yards per attempt won’t be high enough. But a good one could also struggle to keep up if the offense is so balanced that there is a lack of throws.

Tom Brady led the NFL in passing yards in 2021, while Justin Herbert is the preseason favorite this year at +650 odds, via DraftKings.

Here are the three quarterbacks whose odds intrigue me the most:

3. Josh Allen, Buffalo Bills (+1200)

Allen is only tied for the fifth-best odds to finish with the most passing yards, but I feel like he could easily end up with the yardage crown at the end of the season.

Everyone knows about his unreal arm talent, and a receiving corps highlighted by Stefon Diggs and Gabriel Davis is ideal. 

Here’s the statistical case: In 2020, Allen finished in the top-5 in yards per attempt at 7.9. In 2021, he finished with 646 pass attempts, which was the fourth-most in football. If Allen can combine his efficiency from two years ago with last year’s volume, he is going to be in the running.

At 26 years old, Allen is in the midst of his prime and could be in line for a dominant campaign.

2. Kyler Murray, Arizona Cardinals (+2800)

Murray is such a lethal rushing threat that he is not the first player that comes to mind for this category. However, Murray finished eighth in pass attempts in 2020 before a three-game absence torpedoed his counting stats in 2021. With that said, Murray’s yards per attempt jumped from 22nd in the NFL two seasons ago to fourth last year.

If he can approach 8.0 yards per attempt again in 2022, Murray would be a great underdog pick, because I expect the volume to go up. The Cardinals have been top-10 in defensive efficiency each of the past two seasons, but lost several key players this offseason and could regress.

On offense, the Cardinals will likely continue to play fast, and the team’s strength is clearly its pass-catchers. A quartet of DeAndre Hopkins, Hollywood Brown, Zach Ertz and Rondale Moore (once Hopkins returns from a six-game suspension) gives Murray solid options down the field.

Murray will still run the ball, but the Cardinals will also rely on him through the air, and if they get into several shootouts this year, this bet could hit.

1. Joe Burrow, Cincinnati Bengals (+1200)

Burrow is the guy I like the most among the options, and believe his odds should be lower than Derek Carr and Matthew Stafford.

His yards per attempt figure of 8.9 last season was absolutely dominant, and the volume is almost assuredly going to increase this year. The Cincinnati offensive line is projected to be massively upgraded, while Ja’Marr Chase, Tee Higgins and Tyler Boyd make up the best wide receiver trio in the NFL.

The Bengals rode Burrow’s arm to the Super Bowl last season and are going to put a ton on his plate this season. The schedule is tough, which means he will be counted on to keep up against opponents with similarly-strong offenses.

Burrow’s 520 pass attempts in 2021 was only No. 15 in the NFL, sandwiched between Mac Jones and Carson Wentz. He is going to throw a lot more this year, and should be right in the running for the passing yardage crown.

Here are the full odds to finish with the most passing yards in the NFL in the 2022 regular season:

• Justin Herbert +650
• Tom Brady +800
• Patrick Mahomes +800
• Matthew Stafford +1000
• Derek Carr +1000
• Josh Allen +1200
• Joe Burrow +1200
• Dak Prescott +1400
• Aaron Rodgers +1600
• Kirk Cousins +1800
• Russell Wilson +2000
• Matt Ryan +2500
• Kyler Murray +2800
• Tua Tagovailoa +3000
• Trevor Lawrence +3000
• Mac Jones +3000
• Jameis Winston +3000
• Deshaun Watson +3000
• Ryan Tannehill +4000
• Jalen Hurts +4000
• Carson Wentz +4000
• Trey Lance +5000
• Lamar Jackson +5000
• Jared Goff +5000
• Zach Wilson +6000
• Mitchell Trubisky +6000
• Davis Mills +6000
• Daniel Jones +6000
• Baker Mayfield +6500
• Jimmy Garoppolo +7000
• Justin Fields +10000
• Drew Lock +10000
• Marcus Mariota +13000
• Teddy Bridgewater +15000
• Sam Darnold +15000
• Jordan Love +15000
• Andy Dalton +15000
• Tyrod Taylor +20000
• Tyler Huntley +20000
• Taysom Hill +20000
• Taylor Heinicke +20000
• Sam Howell +20000
• Mason Rudolph +20000
• Malik Willis +20000
• Kenny Pickett +20000
• Gardner Minshew +20000
• Matt Corral +25000
• Cam Newton +25000