Joe Burrow already has some great nicknames.
Joe Cool. Joe Shiesty. Joe Brrr. But how about Joe Prolific?
The Cincinnati Bengals’ quarterback had a breakout season in 2021, leading the NFL in yards per attempt at 8.9.
He had the highest single-game passing performance in the league — 525 yards against the Ravens on Dec. 26 — and oh, yeah, the second-highest as well — 446 yards against the Chiefs a week later.
The former No.1 overall pick led the Bengals to the Super Bowl in just his second year, and now the question becomes: Can he produce a similar encore in 2022?
Burrow has some of the most gaudy over/under season totals among quarterbacks over at DraftKings.
- His passing yardage over/under of 4,450.5 is sixth-highest, behind Tom Brady, Patrick Mahomes, Matthew Stafford, Justin Herbert and Derek Carr.
- His passing touchdown total of 34.5 is fourth-highest, tied with Matthew Stafford and Patrick Mahomes while trailing only Josh Allen, Herbert and Brady.
- Burrow has +1200 odds to finish as the league leader in passing yards, and has +1200 odds to win the NFL MVP.
Last season, Burrow finished with 4,611 passing yards and 34 touchdown passes, so the oddsmakers envision another productive campaign.
Now, the first rule of a potential outlier season is to bet on regression, but I’m not so sure that will be the case for Burrow in 2022.
First of all, the offensive line was disastrous in 2021, as Burrow was sacked a league-high 51 times. Luckily Burrow and Ja’Marr Chase are making a rookie-scale salary pittance, which allowed the front office to add veterans Alex Cappa, Ted Karras and La’el Collins in free agency to protect Burrow. It will give him more time in the pocket and also allow for coach Zac Taylor to call more play-action passes, which can often be home run balls.
Second of all, look at the weapons! Burrow still has wideouts Ja’Marr Chase, Tee Higgins and Tyler Boyd at his disposal, which is almost unquestionably the best pass-catching trio in the NFL. He can also dump the ball off to Joe Mixon, the talented running back that can make something out of nothing. There’s a reason I named the Burrow/Chase/Mixon group the best triplets in the NFL.
Passing numbers can sometimes be empty, as trailing teams air it out late in games and rack up yards against soft defenses. But Burrow finished with a Pro Football Focus grade of 91.8 last season, the best in the NFL, proving that it wasn’t garbage time inflating his value.
Lastly, we can’t ignore the late-season improvement from the Bengals. Cincy was surprisingly competitive early in 2021, but Burrow was still recovering from a torn ACL and the offense was below average, according to Football Outsiders’ DVOA.
But from Week 11 on, the Bengals had the sixth-best offense in the NFL, as Burrow was basically given license to chuck the ball all over the field. It worked out great to end the year, and the postseason was more of the same, as the Bengals shocked the NFL world by making the Super Bowl.
Burrow is a legitimate superstar, and the offense has more talent this season than it did a year ago. The wide receivers might not have the same gaudy yards-after-catch numbers as 2021 — Chase was at a ridiculous 8.0 — but they are still going to make plays for their quarterback.
Burrow’s yards-per-attempt will likely come down in 2022, but look for the volume to go up.
When you put it all together, it becomes clear: Believe in Burrow, again, this season.
Prediction: Joe Burrow ‘over’ 4,450.5 pass yards and 34.5 touchdowns
