The NFL is a wild league. In 17 of the past 19 years, a team has gone from worst to first in its division. The Cincinnati Bengals not only pulled it off in 2021, but made it all the way to the Super Bowl.
In each of the past 32 seasons, at least four teams qualified for the playoffs that didn’t make it the year before. Last year, there were seven of them.
Turnover and parity is the name of the game in the NFL, which I tried to keep in mind while making my picks for the playoffs this season.
NFC
No. 1 seed: Tampa Bay Buccaneers (13-4)
Tampa Bay is the biggest favorite on the board, and I agree with the consensus. The NFC is muddled behind the Buccaneers, but I believe this is the clear team to beat, as it has the most talented roster and a schedule that isn’t that daunting.
No. 2 seed: Philadelphia Eagles (11-6)
It didn’t take long for me to veer from most projections. The Eagles have had a tremendous offseason, adding impact players on both sides of the ball to push the roster into top-5 territory. The schedule is easy, and if Jalen Hurts makes incremental progress in 2022, the Eagles could emerge as one of the best teams in the conference.
No. 3 seed: San Francisco 49ers (11-6)
The NFC West is going to be a battle royale once again, and most have the defending champion Los Angeles Rams as the victor. However, I like the totality of the 49ers’ roster, even if quarterback Trey Lance is a giant unknown. The upside with this group is so high because Lance is a great fit for coach Kyle Shanahan’s offense, and I’m betting on a successful union.
No. 4 seed: Green Bay Packers (10-7)
I doubt Green Bay has the same type of success it did a year ago. There are analytical warning signs that forecast regression, and the loss of star wide receiver Davante Adams is huge. Aaron Rodgers should have another very good season, but I don’t think he will be in the MVP conversation again, which means the Packers will nip Minnesota for the NFC North crown, but I could see a 10-7 finish.
No. 5 seed: Los Angeles Rams (10-7)
The Rams are very good on paper again, but I worry about the top-heaviness of the group. Matthew Stafford, Cooper Kupp, Aaron Donald and Jalen Ramsey are extremely important factors to team success. If one or more gets injured or if several regress from last season’s dominance, Los Angeles will take a step back. I think that will happen, and combined with a tough schedule, a wild card berth seems more likely than the divisional crown.
No. 6 seed: Dallas Cowboys (10-7)
The Cowboys are unlikely to be as good as they were a year ago, when they finished 12-5 and had strong units on both sides of the ball. But even if the offense takes a step back, Dallas has an easy enough schedule to finish a few games above .500 and grab a wild card berth.
No. 7 seed: New Orleans Saints (9-8)
The Saints might have the best defense in football, and their offense has upside. Jameis Winston is back from a torn ACl after winning five of the seven games he started last season, and the receiving trio of Michael Thomas, Chris Olave and Jarvis Landry is an immense upgrade from last year’s group. The Saints will have a hard time competing with the Buccaneers in the division, but a playoff berth is doable.
AFC
No. 1 seed: Buffalo Bills (13-4)
The Bills are the Super Bowl favorite for good reason. They have a stacked roster, a star quarterback and a schedule that is easier to navigate than that of other contenders. If all goes right, Buffalo could rip off 14 or 15 wins this season, but I’ll pull back a bit on that while giving them the nod as the top seed.
No. 2 seed: Los Angeles Chargers (12-5)
The AFC West is a gauntlet, which could keep the win-loss records down this year. Even so, I think Los Angeles has enough talent to overtake the Chiefs for the divisional crown. Justin Herbert has MVP ability and an impressive supporting cast, while the defense now boasts Joey Bosa, Khalil Mack, Derwin James and J.C. Jackson.
No. 3 seed: Cincinnati Bengals (11-6)
The Bengals have one of the harder schedules in the NFL, but the upside of this team is so enticing. Cincinnati made the Super Bowl last season and could be better in 2022. The offensive line is no longer a major weakness, and Year 3 of Joe Burrow along with Year 2 of Ja’Marr Chase could bring fireworks. The Ravens lurk in the AFC North but I think the Bengals edge them out.
No. 4 seed: Jacksonville Jaguars (8-9)
The Indianapolis Colts sure look like the class of the AFC South, but when you’re relying on a 37-year-old quarterback to lead the way, there is always the possibility of underperformance. If Matt Ryan does struggle with the Colts, the Jaguars could be poised to jump from worst to first in the division. Trevor Lawrence is entering Year 2 and now has Doug Pederson to help him, as opposed to the disastrous Urban Meyer. Christian Kirk and others have been added as reinforcements, while No. 1 overall pick Travon Walker should give the pass-rush some more juice alongside Josh Allen. I had to make a wild prediction for 2022, and here it is.
No. 5 seed: Kansas City Chiefs (11-6)
The Chiefs lost star wide receiver Tyreek Hill, have a porous defense and a really tough schedule. Despite quarterback Patrick Mahomes’ greatness, I believe those factors will contribute in a step back in 2022 after years of being the team to beat in the AFC. Kansas City is still going to be good this season, but I’m backing off the idea of the team being elite.
No. 6 seed: Baltimore Ravens (11-6)
The AFC North could go either way, and in fact, I have Cincy winning it by the slimmest of margins via tiebreaker. Injuries torpedoed the season for Baltimore in 2021, but the key contributors are back healthy, and this is again one of the strongest rosters in the NFL. Lamar Jackson is an elite quarterback who took a minor step back in 2021. His performance this year will dictate just how good Baltimore can become.
No. 7 seed: Miami Dolphins (10-7)
It’s tough to leave the Denver Broncos out of the playoffs with Russell Wilson now in the mix, but the division is brutal and they could be victimized by that. The Dolphins have an intriguing group on offense, led by Tyreek Hill and Jalen Waddle, and if Tua Tagovailoa can take a step forward, Miami could surprise. This would be a hard-earned playoff berth if the Dolphins can beat out Denver and Las Vegas for the final spot.
