The 2022 NFL regular season begins in less than a week. Nobody knows how it’s going to turn out, but we can certainly take our best educated guesses.
Here are my picks to win the NFL individual awards.
Most Valuable Player: QB Justin Herbert, Los Angeles Chargers
2021 winner: QB Aaron Rodgers, Green Bay Packers
Herbert was among the league leaders last season in EPA per play and finished No. 3 in ESPN’s Total QBR behind only Aaron Rodgers and Tom Brady. It was only his second season in the NFL, and now the 24-year-old embarks on a campaign that could launch him to superstardom.
The AFC West is a gauntlet, but by virtue of finishing in third place last season, the Chargers have a much easier schedule than the Chiefs. The defense in Los Angeles is much-improved, and while that doesn’t help Herbert’s effectiveness, it will contribute to a better record, which tends to be part of the MVP equation.
I predict that the Chargers end the Chiefs’ reign of divisional dominance, buoyed by a dominant season from their star quarterback. That combination will result in the first MVP of Herbert’s career.
Offensive Player of the Year: Cowboys WR CeeDee Lamb (+4000)
2021 winner: Rams WR Cooper Kupp
The Cowboys have hit some bumps in the road this season, as key injuries at wide receiver and on the offensive line have added to the season’s difficulty before it has begun. However, Lamb is still present and primed to have a breakout campaign after catching 79 passes for 1,102 yards and six touchdowns in Year 2.
He has a good quarterback getting him the ball in Dak Prescott, but one with enough flaws that he won’t outshine Lamb on the season. It’s similar to Cooper Kupp’s setup last year, as he won OPOY because Matthew Stafford was good but not great. Lamb is going to get a ton of targets, and he’s versatile enough to make it work even if a defense has a lot of focus on him.
Defensive Player of the Year: 49ers DE Nick Bosa
2021 winner: Steelers OLB T.J. Watt
Bosa had nine sacks as a rookie, missed almost all of his second year with a torn ACL, and then bounced back with 15.5 sacks and four forced fumbles last season. He is still just 24 years old and has the pure talent to vie for the sack crown in Year 4.
San Francisco has a very good pass-rush elsewhere, which should help Bosa’s quest for this lofty award. Typical candidates like Myles Garrett, T.J. Watt and Aaron Donald have better odds, but I like Bosa to wow the football world with a spectacular 2022 campaign.
Offensive Rookie of the Year: Steelers QB Kenny Pickett (+900)
2021 winner: Bengals WR Ja’Marr Chase
There is a whole swath of wide receiver options near the top of the board, but good luck dissecting which ones will boom and which will bust as rookies. The more savvy play is Pickett. Even if Mitchell Trubisky begins as the starter, he has a track record of mediocrity that will likely get him benched at some point.
Pickett may not have humongous upside, but he’s more polished than the typical rookie, and it’s easy to envision solid, if unspectacular, statistics as he plays a part in keeping Pittsburgh in the playoff hunt. Quarterbacks have won seven of the past 14 Offensive Rookie of the Year Awards, and at +900 odds it makes sense to back Pickett.
Defensive Rookie of the Year: Texans CB Derek Stingley, Jr. (+1200)
2021 winner: Cowboys LB Micah Parsons
Lions defensive end Aidan Hutchinson is the favorite to win Defensive Rookie of the Year, and rightfully so, but the odds are too short for me. I prefer the underdog pick of Stingley. He is arguably the most physically gifted rookie and is expected to have a prime role for Houston immediately. If he holds his own against opposing No. 1 wideouts and snags a couple of interceptions, he is going to be in the conversation.
With the proliferation of analytics, it’s easier to judge cornerback play now, and I think Stingley is going to grade out well enough in his first year to make a run at DPOY. When in doubt, bet on the freak athlete to assimilate quickly.
Comeback Player of the Year: Panthers RB Christian McCaffrey
2021 winner: Bengals QB Joe Burrow
Injuries have derailed most of the past two seasons for McCaffrey, but I think he will remain healthy and put up eye-popping stats once again in 2022. McCaffrey is the best running back/receiver threat in the NFL and that ability to burn defenses in myriad ways should be weighted heavily.
The Panthers need to avoid going 5-12 in order for McCaffrey to have some real momentum, but with Baker Mayfield now at the helm, a finish close to .500 is possible, and that should help McCaffrey’s cause.
Coach of the Year: Eagles coach Nick Sirianni (+1800)
2021 winner: Titans coach Mike Vrabel
The Eagles are on par with Super Bowl participant Cincinnati and NFC East foe Dallas with championship odds of +2000, but they don’t seem to be getting that type of respect outside of betting circles.
It’s a good chance to take advantage, as I could easily see Philadelphia not just winning the NFC East but finishing with the No. 2 seed in the NFC. If that happens, Sirianni is going to get a lot of credit, even if much of it should go to Howie Roseman for the roster he’s built up around quarterback Jalen Hurts.
It is a muddled Coach of the Year field with everyone at 14/1 odds are longer, and I like Sirianni to emerge as the voters’ favorite by the end of 2022.
