After a brutal Week 7, I got back on track last week with a 12-3 record. Here are my picks for Week 9.
Philadelphia Eagles (-13.5) at Houston Texans
Thursday, November 3 at 8:15 p.m. ET
The Eagles are massive road favorites, and deservedly so. They are one of the two best teams in football alongside the Bills, while Houston is the worst. Additionally, Brandin Cooks won’t play because he’s unhappy about not being dealt at the trade deadline. While Philadelphia should breeze to the win, I like Houston to cover. The Eagles are only No. 22 in rush defense DVOA so Houston may be able to find some success there. And while Philadelphia is going to dominate on the ground when they have the ball, that will keep the clock moving and shorten the game. I like the Texans, and I’d really like them if the spread moves to +14 or higher.
Score prediction: Eagles 28, Texans 17
Pick: Texans +13.5
Buffalo Bills (-12) at New York Jets
Sunday, November 6 at 1 p.m. ET
Another extremely lopsided spread in favor of the juggernaut road team. The Jets have a serious issue at quarterback but their defense has been solid and there are some playmakers on offense. Like the Thursday night game, this spread looks too high to me. I think New York hangs around.
Score prediction: Bills 30, Jets 19
Pick: Jets +12
Miami Dolphins (-5) at Chicago Bears
Sunday, November 6 at 1 p.m. ET
The Bears were No. 26 in defensive efficiency with linebacker Roquan Smith and edge rusher Robert Quinn for most of that stretch, and those departures could make life tough against a Miami team that is revving up. This will be on Justin Fields and the offense to keep the game close, but he’s been too inconsistent this year for me to have faith in a strong showing, even against a suspect Dolphins defense. I think Miami gets ahead in this one and forces Chicago to play catch-up, which it is not built to do.
Score prediction: Dolphins 31, Bears 21
Pick: Dolphins -5
Minnesota Vikings (-3.5) at Washington Commanders
Sunday, November 6 at 1 p.m. ET
The Commanders’ defense has been solid this season but I don’t think they will be able to slow down the Vikings. Justin Jefferson and Dalvin Cook are playing really well, while tight end T.J. Hockenson may see some time after being acquired from the Lions. Washington traded away cornerback William Jackson, and all of that combined has me believing the Vikings will cover.
Score prediction: Vikings 26, Commanders 21
Pick: Vikings -3.5
Carolina Panthers (+7.5) at Cincinnati Bengals
Sunday, November 6 at 1 p.m. ET
The Bengals looked really bad on offense against the Browns. Ja’Marr Chase is out again for this matchup, and while there should be improvement, the spread is a tick high enough for me to take the Panthers. Despite a host of issues in Carolina, the defense has good players, and this game could be a pretty low-scoring affair.
Score prediction: Bengals 24, Panthers 17
Pick: Panthers +7.5
Green Bay Packers (-3.5) at Detroit Lions
Sunday, November 6 at 1 p.m. ET
The Packers stood pat at the trade deadline and need a major turnaround offensively to get back into the playoff race. A cure to those ills could be this matchup against the Lions, who have the worst defense in the NFL. While Green Bay should score more than usual, I think the Lions will do the same and keep this to within a field goal margin at home.
Score prediction: Packers 27, Lions 24
Pick: Lions +3.5
Indianapolis Colts (+5.5) at New England Patriots
Sunday, November 6 at 1 p.m. ET
The Colts are down bad after beginning the season as the favorites to win the AFC South. But at least young quarterback Sam Ehlinger had a promising debut after replacing Matt Ryan as the starter. I think these two teams are pretty close in talent level, even with Jonathan Taylor possibly sidelined for the game. The Colts should score enough to cover.
Score prediction: Patriots 24, Colts 20
Pick: Colts +5.5
Los Angeles Chargers (-3) at Atlanta Falcons
Sunday, November 6 at 1 p.m. ET
The Falcons have been quietly effective on offense this season, as both the passing attack and the run game are rated top-10 in the NFL by Football Outsiders. The Chargers had much higher expectations heading into the season, but injuries and some struggles have held them back. Atlanta is at home and facing a Los Angeles team that will be missing myriad key players. I like the Falcons to cover and wouldn’t be surprised to see them win this game.
Score prediction: Falcons 24, Chargers 23
Pick: Falcons +3
Las Vegas Raiders (-1.5) at Jacksonville Jaguars
Sunday, November 6 at 4:05 p.m. ET
Both of these teams are better than their records suggest, but I’m surprised to see the Raiders listed as slight road favorites. Trevor Lawrence should be better in this contest and I like the Jaguars to finally win a close game.
Score prediction: Jaguars 27, Raiders 23
Pick: Jaguars +1.5
Seattle Seahawks (+2) at Arizona Cardinals
Sunday, November 6 at 4:05 p.m. ET
If preseason expectations were out the window, the Seahawks would be favored in this game. They are No. 6 in Team DVOA and top-11 in offense, defense and special teams, while Arizona is No. 30 overall. But the oddsmakers aren’t totally sold, and believe Arizona still has some upside now that DeAndre Hopkins is back in the fold. The Cardinals desperately need this game to remain in the playoff chase, but I have a feeling that their home woes continue. I’m 7-1 picking Cardinals games against the spread this season, so Arizona fans can take solace in the fact I’m due to get one wrong.
Score prediction: Seahawks 27, Cardinals 23
Pick: Seahawks +2
Los Angeles Rams (+3) at Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Sunday, November 6 at 4:25 p.m. ET
Two struggling teams with high hopes face off in a game that could tell us a lot about the direction of each. The Bucs don’t look good but I think things are fixable for them. The Rams’ offensive line issues and overall struggles seem deeper-rooted. I like Tampa Bay to bounce back, win this game and eventually take hold of its division again. The Rams could be in trouble, though, especially if they lose handily.
Score prediction: Buccaneers 24, Rams 20
Pick: Buccaneers -3
Tennessee Titans (+12.5) at Kansas City Chiefs
Sunday, November 6 at 8:20 p.m. ET
It’s a yearly tradition at this point. The Titans are 5-2 and tied with the Chiefs for the second-best record in the AFC, yet they are getting no love from the oddsmakers. This feels like much too big of a spread, especially if Tennessee running back Derrick Henry can maintain his dominance of the past few weeks. Kansas City has the more explosive offense but I don’t think they run away with this game.
Score prediction: Chiefs 30, Titans 21
Pick: Titans +12.5
Baltimore Ravens (-2.5) at New Orleans Saints
Monday, November 7 at 8:15 p.m. ET
The Saints have made some strides recently and are far from out of it in the muddled NFC South race. But even though they dominated the Raiders last week, this is another animal. Baltimore is the superior team and I think its defense matches up well with what the Saints are trying to do. This one is especially intriguing because a field goal margin results in a cover, making the Ravens the easy pick.
Score prediction: Ravens 24, Saints 21
Pick: Ravens -2.5
Last week’s record: 12-3
Overall: 67-53-3
