The Buccaneers and Packers lost to the Panthers and Commanders last week, a reminder at just how topsy-turvy the NFL can be. I’m riding that wave this week and taking a few underdogs to win outright.
Baltimore Ravens (+2) at Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Thursday, October 27 at 8:15 p.m. ET
I’m finally out on the Buccaneers. Tom Brady may finally be showing his age and the Ravens have a very solid team. I think Tampa Bay’s offensive struggles will continue in this one against a tough Baltimore defense.
Score prediction: Ravens 21, Buccaneers 20
Pick: Ravens +2
Denver Broncos (+2.5) vs. Jacksonville Jaguars
Sunday, October 30 at 1 p.m. ET
Russell Wilson is expected back for this game with Denver’s season in the balance. Both of these 2-5 teams are better than their record suggests and I will back them in the future. I can only pick one in this contest, and I like the Broncos on the moneyline.
Score prediction: Broncos 24, Jaguars 21
Pick: Broncos +2.5
Pittsburgh Steelers (+10.5) at Philadelphia Eagles
Sunday, October 30 at 1 p.m. ET
The Eagles are dominating this season but this line is pretty big. Pittsburgh’s defense should be able to do enough against the Eagles’ offense, as a turnover or two could help keep this game closer than expected. Philly wins, but the Steelers cover.
Score prediction: Eagles 27, Steelers 17
Pick: Steelers +10.5
Arizona Cardinals (+3.5) at Minnesota Vikings
Sunday, October 30 at 1 p.m. ET
This line has dropped from -6 at open as there was plenty of interest in the Cardinals at that spread. The Vikings might be 5-1 but they haven’t been as dominant as the record suggests. Arizona looked like a different offense with DeAndre Hopkins in the fold, and the defense returned two interceptions for touchdowns against the Saints. However, I’m wary of reading more into one game than the first six.
Score prediction: Vikings 28, Cardinals 23
Pick: Vikings -3.5
New England Patriots (-2.5) at New York Jets
Sunday, October 30 at 1 p.m. ET
The New York Jets have really surprised this season, and while it’s not completely real, they certainly look like a much-improved football team. We will wait and see what the Patriots do at quarterback, but I’m not sure it will make a huge difference. The young Jets players are really shining and that should continue here. I like another upset.
Score prediction: Jets 23, Patriots 20
Pick: Jets +2.5
Chicago Bears (+9.5) at Dallas Cowboys
Sunday, October 30 at 1 p.m. ET
The NFC East may well have the two best teams in the conference between the Eagles and Cowboys. Dallas cruised to a win over the Lions on Sunday and should have plenty of firepower to dominate the Bears. Chicago is somehow 3-4 on the year but I don’t think this one will be competitive.
Score prediction: Cowboys 31, Bears 14
Pick: Cowboys -9.5
Miami Dolphins (-3.5) at Detroit Lions
Sunday, October 30 at 1 p.m. ET
The Lions showed some life early in the season but have lost four in a row and sit with a point-differential of minus-48, the second-worst in the NFL. The Dolphins have been very good with Tua Tagovailoa at quarterback and that should continue here against a suspect Detroit defense. This one should be a shootout.
Score prediction: Dolphins 31, Lions 24
Pick: Dolphins -3.5
Las Vegas Raiders (-1.5) at New Orleans Saints
Sunday, October 30 at 1 p.m. ET
I still think the Saints have a little fight in them despite a 2-5 start, especially with everyone in the NFC South sitting below .500. This game feels like a toss-up to me, and it’s important to watch for the availability of several key New Orleans players, headlined by cornerback Marshon Lattimore. If he can get back, I like the Saints to grab a close one at home.
Score prediction: Saints 24, Raiders 23
Pick: Saints +1.5
Carolina Panthers (+4) at Atlanta Falcons
Sunday, October 30 at 1 p.m. ET
Honestly, who knows about this one? The Falcons are at home and have looked like the better team, but the Panthers just blasted the Buccaneers using a great running game and defense. I’ll keep riding with Carolina since it feel like there is a 99.9% chance this game ends with a game-winning field goal in the final seconds.
Score prediction: Falcons 20, Panthers 17
Pick: Panthers +4
Tennessee Titans (-2.5) at Houston Texans
Sunday, October 30 at 4:05 p.m. ET
The Titans have won four straight games to pull ahead in the AFC South but still aren’t getting a bunch of respect from the oddsmakers. They expect this game to be close, but I’m all over Tennessee in this one knowing a field goal margin results in the cover.
Score prediction: Titans 23, Texans 20
Pick: Titans -2.5
New York Giants (+3) at Seattle Seahawks
Sunday, October 30 at 4:25 p.m. ET
A showdown between a pair of teams with a combined record of 10-4, as we all expected. The NFC West-leading Seahawks just might be the real deal after beating the Chargers last week. The Giants don’t impress me quite as much, though I doubt they care after a 6-1 start.
Score prediction: Seahawks 27, Giants 21
Pick: Seahawks -3
San Francisco 49ers (-1.5) at Los Angeles Rams
Sunday, October 30 at 4:25 p.m. ET
As much as I still like the 49ers, they actually need to start winning some football games. This game is huge for both sides in the NFC West race. The San Francisco defense was shredded by Patrick Mahomes, but the Rams are not playing at nearly the same level. I think the 49ers’ defense will lead the way, and with Christian McCaffrey more integrated now, the offense should look good, too.
Score prediction: 49ers 27, Rams 19
Pick: 49ers -1.5
Washington Commanders (+2.5) at Indianapolis Colts
Sunday, October 30 at 4:25 p.m. ET
The Colts are making a quarterback switch to Sam Ehlinger. I don’t think it’s going to go particularly well. Even though Washington is using a backup itself, Taylor Heinecke is solid enough. I haven’t been impressed with Indianapolis this season and I could see a road upset happening.
Score prediction: Commanders 19, Colts 17
Pick: Commanders +2.5
Green Bay Packers (+11) at Buffalo Bills
Sunday, October 30 at 8:25 p.m. ET
The Packers are double-digit underdogs. Wow. I know Green Bay has its issues but the presence of Aaron Rodgers alone makes this such a rarity. Will the Bills keep it rolling and dominate? I don’t think so. This spread feels too big for me, especially because a 10-point loss would still result in a cover.
Score prediction: Bills 28, Packers 20
Pick: Packers +11
Cincinnati Bengals (-3) at Cleveland Browns
Monday, October 31 at 8:15 p.m. ET
The Bengals are starting to hit their groove, as the passing attack that dominated down the stretch last season is showing similar signs. The Browns have an avenue to win if they can get ahead and then pound the rock, but I think Joe Burrow and Co. are going to be the side that comes out fast, which is going to make it hard for Cleveland to keep up. The absence of Ja’Marr Chase is a big one, but something that can be overcome.
Score prediction: Bengals 24, Browns 20
Pick: Bengals -3
Last week’s record: 4-10
Overall: 55-50-3
