The Cardinals kick things off this week in a Thursday Night Football matchup against the Saints.
Here is my pick for that game, along with every other ensuing matchup:
New Orleans Saints (+2.5) at Arizona Cardinals
Thursday, October 20 at 8:15 p.m. ET
DeAndre Hopkins is back for the Cardinals, just as Hollywood Brown goes down with a foot injury. That’s a huge storyline, but so is the absence of center Rodney Hudson and guard Justin Pugh on the interior of the offensive line. The Cardinals need to protect Kyler Murray and give him a clean pocket, or the offensive issues could continue.
New Orleans is also dealing with a spate of injuries on offense, and faces an Arizona defense that is improving rapidly. The Cardinals have the major quarterback advantage (no offense, Andy Dalton) and that should be enough to finally secure them a long-awaited victory on their home turf.
Score prediction: Cardinals 24, Saints 20
Pick: Cardinals -2.5
New York Giants (+3) at Jacksonville Jaguars
Sunday, October 23 at 1 p.m. ET
The Giants are 5-1 on the season and are still field goal underdogs against the rebuilding Jaguars. The oddsmakers aren’t swayed much by win-loss records and I agree with them here. Jacksonville is the superior team by advanced metrics and its defense should do a nice job of keeping the New York offense in check. The Jaguars need this game badly if they have designs of making a playoff push, and they should get it.
Score prediction: Jaguars 23, Giants 17
Pick: Jaguars -3
Green Bay Packers (-4.5) at Washington Commanders
Sunday, October 23 at 1 p.m. ET
Aaron Rodgers has not looked like the player who won back-to-back MVP awards the past two seasons, and it’s doubtful he reaches those heights this season. However, the passing attack should improve at some point, and that could very well be this week against the Commanders. Washington is rolling with Taylor Heinecke at quarterback, who honestly isn’t much of a downgrade from Carson Wentz. I think the Packers control this one from start to finish.
Score prediction: Packers 26, Commanders 19
Pick: Packers -4.5
Detroit Lions (+7) at Dallas Cowboys
Sunday, October 23 at 1 p.m. ET
The Lions have the worst defense in the NFL and get to welcome back Dak Prescott in this game. The Cowboys’ defense has been stellar this season and now the offense has the potential to be top-10 good if Prescott can find a groove. The Lions have shown some good things offensively but I don’t like this matchup against the Cowboys’ talented edge rushers. Dallas could win in a rout.
Score prediction: Cowboys 31, Lions 20
Pick: Cowboys -7
Tampa Bay Buccaneers (-11) at Carolina Panthers
Sunday, October 23 at 1 p.m. ET
I hate that I have to pick this game. The Buccaneers have been underwhelming all season and the Panthers are a joke of a team at this point. PJ Walker is going to start again at quarterback for Carolina after throwing for 60 yards against the Rams. I don’t think Carolina is going to be able to run the ball in this game, and then the Tampa Bay secondary is going to eat. The Bucs need to pick it up, and they should flex a bit in this one.
Score prediction: Buccaneers 30, Panthers 13
Pick: Buccaneers -11
Atlanta Falcons (+6.5) at Cincinnati Bengals
Sunday, October 23 at 1 p.m. ET
The Bengals’ defense is top-10 in DVOA this season, and Joe Burrow is finding a nice groove after a slow start. The Falcons are an incredible 6-0 against the spread after beating the 49ers as the underdog last week, but I think the streak finally ends here. The Bengals have too much firepower on offense and a defense that is playing surprisingly well.
Score prediction: Bengals 28, Falcons 20
Pick: Bengals -6.5
Cleveland Browns (+6.5) at Baltimore Ravens
Sunday, October 23 at 1 p.m. ET
I’m pretty sure the Cleveland defense is going to get torched in this game by a Baltimore offense that is top-5 in both rushing and passing DVOA. If that happens, Jacoby Brissett will be asked to throw, and that’s not a good thing. Both of these teams are much better when playing from ahead, and it’s going to be the Ravens who are in control.
Score prediction: Ravens 27, Browns 20
Pick: Ravens -6.5
Indianapolis Colts (+2.5) at Tennessee Titans
Sunday, October 23 at 1 p.m. ET
Both of these teams have pretty serious flaws, but I like that the Colts are getting healthier. Star linebacker Shaquille Leonard and star running back Jonathan Taylor seem likely to play, and the offensive line made some progress last week in a win over the Jaguars. I don’t think there is much difference between these teams so I’ll take the upset.
Score prediction: Colts 24, Titans 23
Pick: Colts +2.5
Houston Texans (+7) at Las Vegas Raiders
Sunday, October 23 at 4:05 p.m. ET
The Raiders are the better team despite their 1-4 record, but I think the Texans can hang around in this one. Despite the big names at the skill positions, Las Vegas has not set the world on fire offensively. I think Houston can do enough on defense and in the rushing game to keep this margin less than a touchdown.
Score prediction: Raiders 24, Texans 21
Pick: Texans +7
New York Jets (+1) at Denver Broncos
Sunday, October 23 at 4:05 p.m. ET
Russell Wilson is banged up and playing poorly. The Jets, meanwhile, have been one of the NFL’s early-season surprises. However, this line feels like an overreaction, as Wilson seems likely to play at this point. The Denver defense is very good and should keep the New York offense in check.
Score prediction: Broncos 23, Jets 20
Pick: Broncos -1
Kansas City Chiefs (-2.5) at San Francisco 49ers
Sunday, October 23 at 4:05 p.m. ET
The 49ers are just 3-3 after an upset loss on the road to the Falcons, but the underlying metrics say they are clearly the class of the NFC West. This is a tough game against Patrick Mahomes but I like San Francisco’s chances to pull the upset, especially if Nick Bosa and Trent Williams can play. The 49ers should be able to move the ball against Kansas City, and their pass-rush could give Mahomes some issues.
Score prediction: 49ers 27, Chiefs 24
Pick: 49ers +2.5
Seattle Seahawks (+5) at Los Angeles Chargers
Sunday, October 23 at 4:25 p.m. ET
The Seahawks continue to impress, as even the defense got in on the action against the Cardinals last time out. The Chargers won a close one against the Broncos and I think Justin Herbert is in line for a bounceback game against Seattle. The Seahawks are better than expected but I don’t think they can hang with a Los Angeles team that can really throw the ball effectively.
Score prediction: Chargers 30, Seahawks 21
Pick: Chargers -5
Pittsburgh Steelers (+7) at Miami Dolphins
Sunday, October 23 at 8:20 p.m. ET
The Dolphins should be getting Tua Tagovailoa back for this game, which could mean a return to the explosiveness the offense showed early in the season. Kenny Pickett has been really bad early on and Miami should be able to iron out some defensive wrinkles in this game. The Dolphins can remain patient on offense because Pittsburgh is going to have trouble scoring. Eventually, the floodgates should open.
Score prediction: Dolphins 27, Steelers 17
Pick: Dolphins -7
Chicago Bears (+8) at New England Patriots
Monday, October 24 at 8:15 p.m. ET
The Patriots have jumped into the top-10 in DVOA after back-to-back strong performances. The Bears are bad, but they have shown a penchant to keep games close this year. This spread is too high for my taste, especially with the possibility of a back-door cover in garbage time.
Score prediction: Patriots 24, Bears 17
Pick: Bears +8
Last week’s record: 6-8
Overall: 51-40-3
