It’s the first week with some teams on bye, which has given me 2% more time to study every other game.
What does that mean? Perfect record incoming, of course. My football picks against the spread for Week 6:
Washington Commanders (-1) at Chicago Bears
Thursday, October 13 at 8:15 p.m. ET
The Commanders are pretty bad, but I think the Bears are worse. Carson Wentz has at least shown the ability to move the ball while Chicago doesn’t let Justin Fields throw. If the Bears’ defense harasses Wentz into a bunch of mistakes the Bears will cover, but I think the Commanders play a relatively safe game knowing they don’t need to take a bunch of chances offensively.
Score prediction: Commanders 20, Bears 17
Pick: Commanders -1
Tampa Bay Buccaneers (-8) at Pittsburgh Steelers
Sunday, October 16 at 1 p.m. ET
The Steelers were rocked last time out against the Bills and are now a bigger home underdog than they have been in decades. I really don’t think this is a good matchup for them. Rookie quarterback Kenny Pickett is going to have a tough time against an elite Tampa defense, while Tom Brady will be getting the ball out so fast that the Pittsburgh pass-rush won’t have a huge effect. Another double-digit loss by Pittsburgh could be coming up.
Score prediction: Buccaneers 27, Steelers 16
Pick: Buccaneers -8
San Francisco 49ers (-5.5) at Atlanta Falcons
Sunday, October 16 at 1 p.m. ET
The Falcons have been darlings against the spread this season, covering in every game this season. I don’t think that continues here. The 49ers are rolling, as the defense has been dominant and the offense is doing what’s needed. Marcus Mariota is in for a tough afternoon even if Nick Bosa is out due to injury. The 49ers are emerging as a legitimate contender in the NFC and will bolster their resume in Atlanta.
Score prediction: 49ers 24, Falcons 17
Pick: 49ers -5.5
New York Jets (+7.5) at Green Bay Packers
Sunday, October 16 at 1 p.m. ET
The Jets and Packers both come into this game 3-2, as expected. New York isn’t going to finish the season above .500 but I do think the infusion of young talent is making a difference. The defense should hold up enough against a Green Bay offense that is not elite like usual. As long as Zach Wilson doesn’t throw this game away, I like the Jets to cover.
Score prediction: Packers 24, Jets 20
Pick: Jets +7.5
Baltimore Ravens (-6) at New York Giants
Sunday, October 16 at 1 p.m. ET
The New York Giants are a feel-good story, but narratives don’t sway the oddsmakers, as evidenced by this line. While the Giants clearly have better coaching this year under Brian Daboll, I don’t see them slowing down the Ravens. Baltimore has a top-5 offense, per Football Outsiders, while the New York defense is among the worst in the NFL. And when New York has the ball, the Ravens can stack the box for Saquon Barkley because their cornerbacks can handle the Giants’ questionable wide receivers.
Score prediction: Ravens 31, Giants 21
Pick: Ravens -6
Minnesota Vikings (-3.5) at Miami Dolphins
Sunday, October 16 at 1 p.m. ET
This is a tricky one. If Teddy Bridgewater was named the starter, I’d be all over the Dolphins at this spread. However, rookie Skylar Thompson is expected to start even if Bridgewater is cleared for the game. Even if Thompson starts, I have a sneaky feeling Bridgewater will take over if there is early turbulence. The Vikings haven’t been as good as their 4-1 record suggests, and I think Miami’s offense can get back on track due to the presence of Tyreek Hill and Jaylen Waddle.
Score prediction: Dolphins 24, Vikings 21
Pick: Dolphins +3.5
Cincinnati Bengals (-2) at New Orleans Saints
Sunday, October 16 at 1 p.m. ET
Joe Burrow has not looked like the superstar quarterback of a season ago and will now face a tough defense on the road. The Saints fans will be loud, but they also have a great love for Burrow, the former LSU star, and will be excited if he does well. This spread is enticing right now because I could definitely see the Bengals winning by a field goal margin.
Score prediction: Bengals 23, Saints 20
Pick: Bengals -2
New England Patriots (+2.5) at Cleveland Browns
Sunday, October 16 at 1 p.m. ET
The Browns have been surprisingly effective on offense without Deshaun Watson, as the running game is fantastic and quarterback Jacoby Brissett has been solid. The Patriots dominated the Lions last time out and that scares me a bit, as this team always gets better as the season moves along. But I will have faith in the numbers and roll with a Cleveland team that has the talent and home field advantage.
Score prediction: Browns 21, Patriots 17
Pick: Browns -2.5
Jacksonville Jaguars (+2) at Indianapolis Colts
Sunday, October 16 at 1 p.m. ET
The Colts have basically looked bad all year, while the Jaguars have been really up and down. I think Jacksonville is the better team, and this one will come down to how well quarterback Trevor Lawrence fares against a solid Indy defense. I still like Jacksonville to win the AFC South, and a road win here would be big for that push.
Score prediction: Jaguars 23, Colts 21
Pick: Jaguars +2
Carolina Panthers (+10) at Los Angeles Rams
Sunday, October 16 at 4:05 p.m. ET
The Panthers are downright terrible, but the Rams look nothing like the Super Bowl champs of 2021. While I think Los Angeles wins this game, it’s going to be uncomfortably close for much of the contest. Carolina is not going to play a super exciting brand of football under Steve Wilks but I think the personnel is tailored to his philosophy, which should make the group a tad better than under Matt Rhule. Baker Mayfield is out, but honestly, P.J. Walker can’t be any worse.
Score prediction: Rams 23, Panthers 17
Pick: Panthers +10
Arizona Cardinals (-2.5) at Seattle Seahawks
Sunday, October 16 at 4:05 p.m. ET
The Seahawks are No. 1 in offensive DVOA through five weeks, which is borderline unbelievable after they shipped off Russell Wilson this offseason. Is it sustainable? That remains to be seen, but I do think this group is going to remain much more competitive than we all forecasted.
The Cardinals are last in the NFL in yards per pass attempt at 5.7, but quarterback Kyler Murray is still No. 13 overall in Total QBR because he’s running the ball efficiently and is mostly avoiding sacks and turnovers. I think both quarterbacks play well on Sunday and Arizona grabs a close one while the Seahawks cover.
Score prediction: Cardinals 28, Seahawks 27
Pick: Seahawks +2.5
Geno Smith might be the best story in the NFL through five weeks.
I asked Football Outsiders EIC Aaron Schatz if the veteran QB's star turn is sustainable, and if the Seahawks have some sneaky value right now in betting markets.https://t.co/KW4zQkGhXl
— Kyle Odegard (@Kyle_Odegard) October 12, 2022
Buffalo Bills (-2.5) at Kansas City Chiefs
Sunday, October 16 at 4:25 p.m. ET
It’s pretty interesting that this spread has dipped down to 2.5 points, as a Buffalo victory by a field goal would result in a cover. I think the Bills are the best team in the NFL, but I’m not necessarily convinced they win this game on the road. Patrick Mahomes is an alien who can get the job done against top-tier defenses, while Josh Allen tends to be more of a boom-or-bust player. The Bills are going to move the ball, but I think the Chiefs’ pass-rush is good enough to cause some problems. I like the Chiefs as the +115 moneyline play.
Score prediction: Chiefs 30, Bills 27
Pick: Chiefs +2.5
Dallas Cowboys (+6.5) at Philadelphia Eagles
Sunday, October 16 at 8:20 p.m. ET
This spread is elevating, and I understand why. The Cowboys have been great without quarterback Dak Prescott but this is not a good matchup. Dallas’ biggest strength is its edge-rushing duo of Micah Parsons and DeMarcus Lawrence, but Philly can combat that by going run-heavy and then using play-action to take shots. Cooper Rush has been a great game manager thus far but I think the Eagles’ defense is going to make life tough on him Sunday night.
Score prediction: Eagles 31, Cowboys 17
Pick: Eagles -6.5
Denver Broncos (+5) at Los Angeles Chargers
Monday, October 16 at 8:15 p.m. ET
The oddsmakers are souring on the Broncos, as quarterback Russell Wilson has been quite subpar since joining the team. But I think this is an overreaction. Wilson has a long track record of being a successful quarterback and it seems unlikely that he will stay this bad. The Broncos’ defense has been good this year, and the Chargers will still be missing some key pieces due to injury. Denver should keep this one close.
Score prediction: Chargers 27, Broncos 24
Pick: Broncos +5
Last week’s record: 6-9-1
Overall: 45-32-3
