After a week in which there weren’t any football games with a spread larger than a touchdown, the oddsmakers are projecting some lopsided matchups in Week 5.
What do I think? Thanks for asking. Here are my picks against the spread:
Indianapolis Colts (+3.5) at Denver Broncos
Thursday, October 6 at 8:15 p.m. ET
The Colts have the worst offense in the NFL through four games, according to Football Outsiders, as quarterback Matt Ryan has struggled with turnovers in the first month. The Broncos had trouble stopping the run last time out but catch a break with Jonathan Taylor sidelined. I don’t think the Broncos will have too much trouble in this one.
Score prediction: Broncos 27, Colts 20
Pick: Broncos -3.5
New York Giants (+8) vs. Green Bay Packers
Sunday, October 9 at 9:30 a.m. ET
I’m jumping on this now in case it drops down to a touchdown spread. Maybe that’s what the oddsmakers want, but I think the Giants can lean on Saquon Barkley to keep this game close enough. The Packers squeaked out a win against the Patriots last week and I think New York will do enough on offense to cover.
Score prediction: Packers 23, Giants 17
Pick: Giants +8
Pittsburgh Steelers (+14) at Buffalo Bills
Sunday, October 9 at 1 p.m. ET
Whoo, quite the spread here. The Steelers have turned the reins of the offense over to Kenny Pickett, and the Bills must be licking their chops on defense. Pickett threw three interceptions in his 13 attempts against the Jets, but he should be more prepared in this one. The Steelers will try everything they can to shorten this game, and I think the defense will stand up enough to help them cover.
Score prediction: Bills 28, Steelers 16
Pick: Steelers +14
Atlanta Falcons (+9) at Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Sunday, October 9 at 1 p.m. ET
The Falcons have been better than expected this season and the Bucs have been worse. They come into this game tied for the NFC South lead at 2-2, and news broke this week that Tom Brady and Giselle Bundchen have hired divorce lawyers. While I lean heavily into the analytics, it’s fair to wonder if Brady’s personal life is affecting his play. I’ll take the Falcons to give Tampa a bit of a scare and cover.
Score prediction: Buccaneers 27, Falcons 21
Pick: Falcons +9
Miami Dolphins (-3) at New York Jets
Sunday, October 9 at 1 p.m. ET
The Dolphins have already ruled out quarterback Tua Tagovailoa because of his concussion(s) so Teddy Bridgewater will start. While it’s a slight downgrade, this spread really perplexes me. I don’t give the Jets much of a chance to keep this game close against the firepower Miami has on offense.
Score prediction: Dolphins 26, Jets 17
Pick: Dolphins -3
Chicago Bears (+7) at Minnesota Vikings
Sunday, October 9 at 1 p.m. ET
Justin Fields has yet to give any indication that he can efficiently lead the Bears’ offense successfully. The defense is solid but the Vikings have the firepower to overcome it. Minnesota should be able to run away with this one at home.
Score prediction: Vikings 27, Bears 17
Pick: Vikings -7
Seattle Seahawks (+5.5) at New Orleans Saints
Sunday, October 9 at 1 p.m. ET
This is an interesting battle between expectation and reality through four games. The Seahawks have exceeded projections, as Geno Smith has been one of the better quarterbacks in football during the 2-2 start. The Saints have played worse than expected, and yet, the oddsmakers favor New Orleans decisively. It’s too high for me, as I think the Seahawks can keep this margin around a field goal.
Score prediction: Saints 24, Seahawks 20
Pick: Seahawks +5.5
Los Angeles Chargers (-3) at Cleveland Browns
Sunday, October 9 at 1 p.m. ET
This one all comes down to Cleveland’s ability to be ahead or close throughout, because if Jacoby Brissett is forced to throw, I don’t think things will end well for the Browns. If Keenan Allen plays, things change, but I think the Chargers will be cautious and keep him out. Cleveland has enough talent to keep this one nip-and-tuck behind a strong running game, so I’ll take the points.
Score prediction: Chargers 24, Browns 23
Pick: Browns +3
Houston Texans (+7) at Jacksonville Jaguars
Sunday, October 9 at 1 p.m. ET
These two teams were both expected to be pretty bad entering the season, but the Jaguars have really acquitted themselves well (while, yes, the Texans have been bad). Trevor Lawrence should bounce back in this game and lead Jacksonville to an easy win. The spread may look high, but the Jaguars can cover it.
Score prediction: Jaguars 27, Texans 17
Pick: Jaguars -7
Tennessee Titans (-2.5) at Washington Commanders
Sunday, October 9 at 1 p.m. ET
I don’t have much belief in the Commanders, but I’m also down on the Titans this season. Washington is at home in a game that I think can go either way, so it makes sense to take the moneyline at +120 as a mini-upset is possible.
Score prediction: Commanders 24, Titans 21
Pick: Commanders +2.5
San Francisco 49ers (-6.5) at Carolina Panthers
Sunday, October 9 at 4:05 p.m. ET
Baker Mayfield has looked like the worst quarterback in the NFL through four games, and now he must face a ferocious 49ers defense. Good luck, Panthers. A Matt Rhule dismissal seems inevitable at this point.
Score prediction: 49ers 28, Panthers 19
Pick: 49ers -6.5
Philadelphia Eagles (-5.5) at Arizona Cardinals
Sunday, October 9 at 4:25 p.m. ET
I’m 4-0 against the spread picking Cardinals games this season and will look to keep that rolling here. The Eagles boast one of the best pass defenses in the NFL while the Cardinals are among the worst in yards per pass attempt, which isn’t a good combination. If Arizona goes run-heavy, the Philly defensive line is stout enough to keep it in check. Jalen Hurts’ dual-threat abilities have the Eagles’ offense flying high and I doubt that stops in this one. The Cardinals are at home and they have Kyler Murray, but I don’t think they can hang.
Score prediction: Eagles 31, Cardinals 20
Pick: Eagles -5.5
Detroit Lions (+3) at New England Patriots
Sunday, October 9 at 1 p.m. ET
I could definitely see a scenario where the Patriots run the ball 73 times at 5.0 yards per carry and grind the Lions into submission. But Jared Goff and that Detroit offense has been rolling, while New England might need to turn to Bailey Zappe at quarterback. The Lions could very well win this game outright, and the +135 moneyline odds are enticing.
Score prediction: Lions 24, Patriots 20
Pick: Lions +3
Dallas Cowboys (+5.5) at Los Angeles Rams
Sunday, October 9 at 4:25 p.m. ET
Cooper Rush has done a nice job filling in, but he’s no Dak Prescott. That is clearly the thinking by the oddsmakers, but I’m wondering what the other side of the ball will look like in this one. Dallas’ defense has been really good this season, and if Micah Parsons and DeMarcus Lawrence dominate up front, Matthew Stafford could struggle again.
Score prediction: Rams 23, Cowboys 20
Pick: Cowboys +5.5
Cincinnati Bengals (+3) at Baltimore Ravens
Sunday, October 9 at 8:30 p.m. ET
The Bengals have worked out some early-season kinks on offense and could take over first place in the AFC North with a win here. However, Baltimore is at home and Lamar Jackson is playing at a high level. I think the Ravens will grab this victory in a high-scoring affair and also cover the spread.
Score prediction: Ravens 28, Bengals 24
Pick: Ravens -3
Las Vegas Raiders (+7) at Kansas City Chiefs
Monday, October 10 at 8:15 p.m. ET
The Chiefs are definitely the better team, but I think the Raiders have the talent on offense to hang around in this game. Kansas City has been middle of the pack in defensive efficiency through four games but I’m not sure that equates to the true talent level of the personnel. Look for the Raiders to make this a competitive matchup from start to finish.
Score prediction: Chiefs 34, Raiders 30
Pick: Raiders +7
Last week’s record: 8-7-1
Overall: 39-23-2
