The Week 4 slate is upon as, as the Cincinnati Bengals and Miami Dolphins face off on Thursday Night Football. I squeaked out an above-.500 record in Week 3 but must do better.
On to the picks.
(Note: This article publishes on Thursday and the weekend picks may be updated based on breaking news or injuries.)
Miami Dolphins (+3.5) at Cincinnati Bengals
Thursday, September 29 at 8:15 p.m. ET
I think the Bengals win this game but I love that a field goal margin results in a cover for the Dolphins. Miami’s offense has been among the best in the NFL this season, and as long as most of the key questionable guys play, the Dolphins should be able to hang around. Cincy, though, is the deserved favorite and should get to 2-2 on the year.
Score prediction: Bengals 27, Dolphins 24
Pick: Dolphins +3.5
Minnesota Vikings (-2.5) vs. New Orleans Saints
Sunday, October 2 at 9:30 a.m. ET
Jameis Winston is back to his old tricks, turning the ball over at an alarming rate. He’s also dealing with a back injury, and a transatlantic flight couldn’t have helped, so Andy Dalton could be the guy. Michael Thomas and Jarvis Landry are also banged up, so I’m jumping on Minnesota in case this spread inflates as the game gets closer.
Score prediction: Vikings 23, Saints 17
Pick: Vikings -2.5
Buffalo Bills (-3) at Baltimore Ravens
Sunday, October 2 at 1 p.m. ET
The Buffalo Bills may be a juggernaut, but the Ravens aren’t too far behind. Lamar Jackson has arguably been the best quarterback in the NFL through three weeks, gashing teams with both his arm and legs. Even though I still feel like Buffalo is the most talented team in the NFL, the Ravens could very well win this outright at home.
Score prediction: Ravens 28, Bills 27
Pick: Ravens +3
Jacksonville Jaguars (+6.5) at Philadelphia Eagles
Sunday, October 2 at 1 p.m. ET
The Eagles are off to a terrific start, but don’t discount what the Jaguars are doing. Trevor Lawrence seems to be taking the leap we all knew he was capable of, while Christian Kirk has looked potent in his first three games with the team. Philadelphia has a very good squad and plays this one at home, but I think Jacksonville can hang around a week after shocking the Chargers.
Score prediction: Eagles 28, Jaguars 24
Pick: Jaguars +6.5
Los Angeles Chargers (-5) at Houston Texans
Sunday, October 2 at 1 p.m. ET
The Chargers are down star tackle Rashawn Slater and star edge rusher Joey Bosa for this one, while quarterback Justin Herbert continues to battle a painful ribs injury. Despite this, I think Los Angeles has too much star power for the Texans. This line might drop even more, so be patient, but in the end I like the Chargers.
Score prediction: Chargers 24, Texans 17
Pick: Chargers -5
Washington Commanders (+3) at Dallas Cowboys
Sunday, October 2 at 1 p.m. ET
Both teams won’t wow us with their quarterback play, but the difference to me is the star power on the Dallas defense. Micah Parsons and DeMarcus Lawrence are problems on the edge, while the back seven has playmakers, too. The Cowboys should grab this one.
Score prediction: Cowboys 21, Commanders 16
Pick: Cowboys -3
Seattle Seahawks (+4.5) at Detroit Lions
Sunday, October 2 at 1 p.m. ET
This spread is a nod to how far the Lions have come this season, going from a bottom-feeder to a rising squad. Seattle has a low ceiling, but I think the offense will be able to move the ball enough in this one to keep it close. I don’t think the Lions are “blow out inferior teams” good at this point, but it will be pretty intriguing if I’m wrong.
Score prediction: Lions 27, Seahawks 23
Pick: Seahawks +4.5
Cleveland Browns (-1) at Atlanta Falcons
Sunday, October 2 at 1 p.m. ET
Both of these teams have reason to be happy with the way they have started the season. Cleveland very well could be 3-0, and not only is the rushing attack dominating, but Jacoby Brissett is playing well, too. The Falcons may be a little better than dreadful but I’m not sure they can hold up against Nick Chubb.
Score prediction: Browns 24, Falcons 21
Pick: Brown -1
Chicago Bears (+3.5) at New York Giants
Sunday, October 2 at 1 p.m. ET
This spread seems high to me. Two teams that have below average offenses seem destined to play in an ugly contest that comes down to the wire, much like the Bears did last week. The Giants probably win, but Chicago is definitely the pick to cover.
Score prediction: Giants 20, Bears 17
Pick: Bears +3.5
Tennessee Titans (+3.5) at Indianapolis Colts
Sunday, October 2 at 1 p.m. ET
I’m not really sold on either of these teams, and because of that, this is another easy choice. Any time the spread gets above 3, I’m interested. In fact, Indy might be on upset alert despite a win over the Chiefs last week seemingly righted the ship.
Score prediction: Titans 24, Colts 23
Pick: Titans +3.5
New York Jets (+3.5) at Pittsburgh Steelers
Sunday, October 2 at 1 p.m. ET
Zach Wilson is back! So pencil in a pick or two for Minkah Fitzpatrick, and a sack or five for the Pittsburgh defensive front. The Steelers will dominate on that side of the ball and cover relatively easily.
Score prediction: Steelers 21, Jets 13
Pick: Steelers -3.5
Arizona Cardinals (+2) at Carolina Panthers
Sunday, October 2 at 4:05 p.m. ET
The Cardinals’ defense has been shredded to the tune of a 117.9 quarterback rating through three weeks, but this matchup is substantially easier against Baker Mayfield. Christian McCaffrey has a thigh injury that forced him to miss practice on Wednesday, and his level of availability could really tip the scales for me. As it stands, I think the Cardinals find their running game in Carolina and pull out a crucial win.
Score prediction: Cardinals 23, Panthers 20
Pick: Cardinals +2
New England Patriots (+10) at Green Bay Packers
Sunday, October 2 at 4:25 p.m. ET
The Patriots aren’t expected to have Mac Jones for this one, but their rushing attack has been really efficient early on and that should be able to keep them in it. I keep betting against the Packers and getting burned, but I’m not a quitter.
Score prediction: Packers 28, Patriots 20
Pick: Patriots +10
Denver Broncos (+2.5) at Las Vegas Raiders
Sunday, October 2 at 4:25 p.m. ET
This is one of my favorite underdog picks of the week. This feels like it should be a virtual toss-up, as Russell Wilson will begin to play better eventually. The Raiders have a team that is better than its 0-3 record would indicate, but I think 0-4 is incoming.
Score prediction: Broncos 27, Raiders 24
Pick: Broncos +2.5
Kansas City Chiefs (+1) at Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Sunday, October 2 at 8:30 p.m. ET
Hurricane Ian is making this a tough game to judge right now. One thing for certain is that Mike Evans will be back. Add in a defense playing at an elite level, and I like the Buccaneers as slight favorites at home. Monitor the weather conditions closely in this one.
Score prediction: Buccaneers 23, Chiefs 20
Pick: Buccaneers -1
Los Angeles Rams (+1.5) at San Francisco 49ers
Monday, October 3 at 8:15 p.m. ET
A lot of people are down on the 49ers after their sluggish start, but I still like their long-term prospects to win the NFC West. That gets much harder if they can’t secure this win at home, but the offense should pull its weight this time, while the defense gets after Matthew Stafford.
Score prediction: 49ers 27, Rams 17
Pick: 49ers -1.5
Last week: 8-7-1
Overall: 31-16-1
