After a wild first week of NFL action, it’s already time to get back on the horse. We may have learned some things from opening weekend, but others could be mirages.
I tried to sort it all out heading into Week 2. Here are my picks against the spread. (Note: This article publishes on Thursday and the Sunday picks may be updated based on breaking news or injuries.)
Los Angeles Chargers (+4) at Kansas City Chiefs
Thursday, September 15 at 8:15 p.m. ET
The Chiefs walloped the Cardinals on Sunday, as Patrick Mahomes had one of the best games of his career. But the Los Angeles defense is much better than Arizona’s, and its offense is spectacular with Justin Herbert at the helm. The absence of Keenan Allen hurts, but the Chargers can overcome it. I think an upset is coming, which will give the Chargers a lot of buzz in the early portion of the season.
Score prediction: Chargers 28, Chiefs 27
Pick: Chargers +4
Tampa Bay Buccaneers (-2.5) at New Orleans Saints
Sunday, September 18 at 1 p.m. ET
The Buccaneers aren’t getting enough love early in the season, in my opinion. They routed the Cowboys and have everything needed to win a Super Bowl. I think they flex on New Orleans in this matchup.
Score prediction: Buccaneers 27, Saints 19
Pick: Buccaneers -2.5
Miami Dolphins (+3.5) at Baltimore Ravens
Sunday, September 18 at 1 p.m. ET
This game could tell us a lot about both teams. Miami performed well in its opener after an aggressive offseason, and the Ravens looked good after getting all of their injured players back from a season ago. I think the Dolphins can hang around, but offensive line injuries are an issue. In the end, the Ravens’ rushing attack will be the difference.
Score prediction: Ravens 24, Dolphins 20
Pick: Ravens -3.5
New England Patriots (-2) at Pittsburgh Steelers
Sunday, September 18 at 1 p.m. ET
I’m a little surprised the Patriots are favored in this game. Both teams have questions on offense, but the Pittsburgh defense should still be very good even without T.J. Watt. I think Pittsburgh wins this game at home.
Score prediction: Steelers 23, Patriots 20
Pick: Steelers +2
New York Jets (+6.5) at Cleveland Browns
Sunday, September 18 at 1 p.m. ET
This seems like a pretty big spread for a Browns team that doesn’t have Deshaun Watson. The Jets are bad but I think they will hold up well enough against the run to force Jacoby Brissett to make some plays. This one should be an uninspiring win by Cleveland, but I like the Jets to cover.
Score prediction: Browns 20, Jets 16
Pick: Jets +6.5
Indianapolis Colts (-4) at Jacksonville Jaguars
Sunday, September 18 at 1 p.m. ET
The Jaguars looked like a much more competent outfit in Washington under Doug Pederson, but couldn’t come away with the victory. It’s probably not the best idea to keep picking Jacksonville to win, but I like the Jags to pull the upset here against a Colts team that may not be as good as people thought.
Score prediction: Jaguars 23, Colts 21
Pick: Jaguars +4
Washington Commanders (+1.5) at Detroit Lions
Sunday, September 18 at 1 p.m. ET
This spread seems too low to me. The Lions are dealing with some offensive line issues but there is still enough talent to take care of business against the Commanders.
Score prediction: Lions 24, Commanders 20
Pick: Lions -1.5
Carolina Panthers (+2) at New York Giants
Sunday, September 18 at 1 p.m. ET
Daniel Jones and Saquon Barkley were really good in the opener. Barkley has the ability to keep it up, but Jones needs to show me much more to believe that he’s made a leap. I think this game can go either way, so it’s an easy decision to take the points.
Score prediction: Panthers 26, Giants 23
Pick: Panthers +2
Atlanta Falcons (+10.5) at Los Angeles Rams
Sunday, September 18 at 4:05 p.m. ET
The Falcons are expected to be one of the worst teams in the NFL, but didn’t look like it in the opener. The Rams are expected to be a contender, but didn’t look like it in the opener. Los Angeles should get back on track but this line looks high.
Score prediction: Rams 26, Falcons 18
Pick: Falcons +10.5
Seattle Seahawks (+8.5) at San Francisco 49ers
Sunday, September 18 at 4:05 p.m. ET
The 49ers’ defense was as advertised in Chicago, but Trey Lance and the offense let down. I think San Francisco turns it around in this one, using a strong running game and some harassment of Geno Smith to cruise to the win at home.
Score prediction: 49ers 27, Seahawks 16
Pick: 49ers -8.5
Cincinnati Bengals (-7.5) at Dallas Cowboys
Sunday, September 18 at 4:25 p.m. ET
The Bengals’ defense looked good in the opener and now faces off against Cooper Rush and the Cowboys. Joe Burrow will bounce back and I think Cincy picks up an easy win on the road.
Score prediction: Bengals 30, Cowboys 20
Pick: Bengals -7.5
Arizona Cardinals (+5.5) at Las Vegas Raiders
Sunday, September 18 at 4:25 p.m. ET
It was a terrible start for Arizona against Kansas City, but the line movement on this game seems like an overreaction. Both teams have some real strong points and real flaws. I think Kyler Murray is mobile enough to avoid the Raiders’ star edge-rushing duo of Maxx Crosby and Chandler Jones, keeping Arizona in it with his playmaking.
Score prediction: Raiders 27, Cardinals 23
Pick: Cardinals +5.5
Houston Texans (+10) at Denver Broncos
Sunday, September 18 at 4:25 p.m. ET
The Broncos are the better team, but Houston showed in the opener that it might not be the doormat of 2021. Denver will pick up its first win of the Russell Wilson era but I think it could be a slog.
Score prediction: Broncos 22, Texans 16
Pick: Texans +10
Chicago Bears (+10) at Green Bay Packers
Sunday, September 18 at 4:25 p.m. ET
Another double-digit underdog that I like. The Bears’ defense has some really good pieces, and while Aaron Rodgers will be better this week, I have serious questions about Green Bay’s top-end ability this season.
Score prediction: Packers 23, Bears 14
Pick: Bears +10
Tennessee Titans (+10) at Buffalo Bills
Monday, September 19 at 7:15 p.m. ET
The Bills are a juggernaut and this spread reflects that. The Titans have the type of style that can keep games close, but I don’t think the offense is going to have much success at all against this swarming Buffalo defense. The Bills win big again.
Score prediction: Bills 30, Titans 17
Pick: Bills -10
Minnesota Vikings (+1.5) at Philadelphia Eagles
Monday, September 19 at 8:30 p.m. ET
The Eagles didn’t cover last week but were in control for much of the contest against Detroit. Both of these teams have started hot but Philly has the more complete group, and Jalen Hurts’ dual threat style is hard to stop.
Score prediction: Eagles 27, Vikings 24
Pick: Eagles -1.5
Last week’s record against the spread: 12-4
Overall: 12-4
