Weather is going to wreak havoc on several football games this week, which makes them harder to project.
But no excuses! Here are my picks against the spread for Week 16.
Jacksonville Jaguars (+2.5) at New York Jets
Thursday, December 22 at 8:15 p.m. ET
I’m surprised by this line. The conditions won’t be good and the Jets have a stingy defense, so it’s unlikely Trevor Lawrence and the Jacksonville offense dominate like they have in past weeks, but Zach Wilson is on the other side.
The Jaguars have the more potent offense and a much better quarterback. Even on the road, that is plenty for me to back them against the spread and choose an upset on the moneyline.
Score prediction: Jaguars 20, Jets 17
Pick: Jaguars +2.5
Buffalo Bills (-8) at Chicago Bears
Saturday, December 24th at 1 p.m. ET
The scoring total is 39.5, as adverse weather is expected to make this a tough game for both teams. Even though the Bills have the superior team, Justin Fields’ game is tailor-made for the cold and I think he will play well.
The Bills are the pick to win but the Bears should cover, and I really like that a touchdown margin still puts money in my pocket.
Score prediction: Bills 24, Bears 17
Pick: Bears +8
Seattle Seahawks (+10) at Kansas City Chiefs
Saturday, December 24th at 1 p.m. ET
The Chiefs are great, but come on, man, a spread of double digits? I still believe in Seattle and think this game is going to be pretty competitive. The Seahawks to cover may be the easiest choice of the week for me.
Score prediction: Chiefs 28, Seahawks 23
Pick: Seahawks +10
Cincinnati Bengals (-3) at New England Patriots
Saturday, December 24th at 1 p.m. ET
The Patriots have a good defense but I don’t think Joe Burrow can be stopped by anyone when he is clicking, and that’s been the case the past several weeks. And on the flip-side, the Cincy defense should be able to contain Mac Jones pretty easily.
It wouldn’t be a total shock if this game was a push but I’m definitely taking the Bengals to cover on the road, as they are the much better team.
Score prediction: Bengals 24, Patriots 20
Pick: Bengals -3
Detroit Lions (-2.5) at Carolina Panthers
Saturday, December 24th at 1 p.m. ET
The Lions are surging and now have a pretty decent shot at making the playoffs. A win here is essential against a Panthers team that has played well under interim coach Steve Wilks.
Carolina should be able to run the ball pretty well but if the Lions get ahead the Panthers wil have a hard time rallying, which is the scenario I see happening.
Score prediction: Lions 23, Panthers 17
Pick: Lions -2.5
New York Giants (+4.5) at Minnesota Vikings
Saturday, December 24th at 1 p.m. ET
Both of these teams have good records but have taken a beating from the advanced metrics. It’s an interesting matchup and one where I feel like the quarterback discrepancy is really going to shine.
The Vikings are the pick to finally win a game by more than one score.
Score prediction: Vikings 27, Giants 17
Pick: Vikings -4.5
Houston Texans (+3) at Tennessee Titans
Saturday, December 24th at 1 p.m. ET
The Titans are holding onto first place in the AFC South for dear life but without Ryan Tannehill, it’s no guarantee they win this game. Derrick Henry needs to run the ball really efficiently for the Titans to win and cover but I think Houston will sell out to stop him and force Malik Willis to throw.
The Tennessee defense has an easy matchup but I think this game ends up close and low-scoring, in which case I’m going with the underdog.
Score prediction: Titans 17, Texans 16
Pick: Texans +3
New Orleans Saints (+2.5) at Cleveland Browns
Saturday, December 24th at 1 p.m. ET
The over/under is a ridiculous 32.5 points, and I feel like we are obligated to bet that scoring total. When it comes to the game itself, I think the superior running game will be important because the game is going to be played in the bitter cold.
The Browns are the better team on the ground and I think they will ride that to the win. Deshaun Watson has been bad throwing the ball but he’s mobile enough to impact the game with his legs.
Score prediction: Browns 20, Saints 14
Pick: Browns -2.5
Atlanta Falcons (+6.5) at Baltimore Ravens
Saturday, December 24th at 1 p.m. ET
Desmond Ridder was awful in his debut but the Falcons still only lost by three points to the Saints. I could see a similar situation here. The Ravens aren’t going to have Lamar Jackson and the offense is struggling without him and a questionable wide receiver group.
I think this spread is too high because there could be a major lack of offense.
Score prediction: Ravens 20, Falcons 14
Pick: Falcons +6.5
Washington Commanders (+7) at San Francisco 49ers
Saturday, December 24th at 4:05 p.m. ET
The 49ers are in a great groove and even the loss of Jimmy Garoppolo hasn’t slowed them down. Brock Purdy has done a stellar job filling in, although I do wonder if the Commanders’ talented defensive front can give him some issues.
The Commanders aren’t explosive enough on offense to steal this game but I do believe they will keep it close and cover the spread.
Score prediction: 49ers 24, Commanders 20
Pick: Commanders +7
Philadelphia Eagles (+5.5) at Dallas Cowboys
Saturday, December 24th at 4:25 p.m. ET
This seems like an overreaction to me. Jalen Hurts has been playing great football this season but the Eagles are dominant because they have talent spread throughout the roster.
The Cowboys should win by virtue of having Dak Prescott under center but Gardner Minshew is capable enough to keep the Eagles in the game. Philly is the pick to cover.
Score prediction: Cowboys 27, Eagles 23
Pick: Eagles +5.5
Las Vegas Raiders (+2.5) at Pittsburgh Steelers
Saturday, December 24th at 8:25 p.m. ET
The Raiders are still hanging around on the fringes of the playoff chase and need this win to keep that prayer alive. The Steelers have an elite defense and the team is playing pretty well but I think Derek Carr will do enough in this game to help Las Vegas spring the upset.
Score prediction: Raiders 23, Steelers 19
Pick: Raiders +2.5
Green Bay Packers (+3.5) at Miami Dolphins
Sunday, December 25th at 1 p.m. ET
The Packers have an outside shot of qualifying for the postseason but I think the Dolphins will put out that flickering light in Week 16. Green Bay has not been able to move the ball through the air very well this season, and you have to do that to keep up with the explosive Miami offense.
The Dolphins’ defense might give up some yards but I think it clamps down in the red zone, which will help Miami win and cover this spread.
Score prediction: Dolphins 27, Packers 20
Pick: Dolphins -3.5
Denver Broncos (-3) at Los Angeles Rams
Sunday, December 25th at 4:30 p.m. ET
Two teams that were expected to be Super Bowl contenders are instead just playing out the string. The Rams are down so many key players that it is hard to believe in their ability to win any game.
The Broncos will have Russell Wilson, and even though he’s been terrible this year I certainly trust him more than Baker Mayfield. I think the Denver defense dominates and the offense does enough to cover.
Score prediction: Broncos 20, Rams 13
Pick: Broncos -3
Tampa Bay Buccaneers (-7.5) at Arizona Cardinals
Sunday, December 25th at 8:15 p.m. ET
This line started at four points and has steadily increased throughout the week. It was a no-brainer under a touchdown and I still think Tampa Bay is the right choice.
Tom Brady is not playing well this season but he’s still considerably better than Trace McSorley. I think the Buccaneers’ defense is going to dominate this game and it would not surprise me to see Tampa Bay turn this one into a laugher.
Not that Cardinals fans mind. They have embraced the tank.
Score prediction: Buccaneers 27, Cardinals 12
Pick: Buccaneers -7.5
Los Angeles Chargers (-4.5) at Indianapolis Colts
Monday, December 26th at 8:15 p.m. ET
The Chargers are finding their groove at the right time, and could be dangerous in the playoffs as everyone gets healthy. Jonathan Taylor is done for the year and Nick Foles is the next contestant on ‘Who wants to quarterback the Colts?’ so it could be ugly.
Indy supposedly had a strong enough roster to overcome quarterback issues this season but that has not been the case, and I think the Chargers expose them on Monday night.
Score prediction: Chargers 28, Colts 17
Pick: Chargers -4.5
Last week’s record: 9-6-1
Overall: 119-98-7
