The weekly slate of football games will kick off on Thursday with an NFC West clash between the San Francisco 49ers and Seattle Seahawks. Below is my pick against the spread for that game and every other on the docket.
San Francisco 49ers (-3.5) at Seattle Seahawks
Thursday, December 15 at 8:15 p.m. ET
The Seahawks have a pretty good team this year and the 49ers are relying on a quarterback, Brock Purdy, who looked great last week but is still a rookie seventh-round pick. Even so, the 49ers are No. 1 in the NFL in weighted DVOA, which means they are playing better than anyone in the league right now. The defense is ferocious and I think San Francisco’s talent is going to overwhelm the Seahawks on Thursday night.
Score prediction: 49ers 23, Seahawks 17
Pick: 49ers -3.5
Indianapolis Colts (+4) at Minnesota Vikings
Sunday, December 18th at 1 p.m. ET
The questions about the Vikings proved well-founded after their beatdown by the Lions, but this line seems like an overreaction. I think Minnesota will be able to move the ball in this game but am not sold that Indy has what it takes to keep up. The Vikings are the pick to get back on track with an easier-than-expected win.
Score prediction: Vikings 26, Colts 17
Pick: Vikings -4
Baltimore Ravens (+3) at Cleveland Browns
Sunday, December 18th at 1 p.m. ET
The Browns’ offense has been putrid in two games with Deshaun Watson at the helm. History says it should get better, but it’s fair to wonder how much the long layoff will affect him the rest of the season. The Ravens will roll with Tyler Huntley at quarterback once again.
Baltimore is well-rounded enough that I like them to keep this game close and possibly pull the upset at +130 on the moneyline.
Score prediction: Ravens 23, Browns 20
Pick: Ravens +3
Miami Dolphins (+7) at Buffalo Bills
Sunday, December 18th at 1 p.m. ET
Whew, the oddsmakers are on the Bills big-time in this one. There is no doubt Tua Tagovailoa looked terrible against the Chargers but Miami’s offense has been explosive much of the season. The forecast calls for cold temperatures but I think the passing game can still be effective.
I’m definitely on the Dolphins for this one.
Score prediction: Bills 27, Dolphins 24
Pick: Dolphins +7
Philadelphia Eagles (-9) at Chicago Bears
Sunday, December 18th at 1 p.m. ET
The Eagles are a juggernaut and the Bears are bad. I understand that a big run or two by Justin Fields may be able to keep Chicago in this one, but Philly is just so much more talented.
I foresee a blowout incoming.
Score prediction: Eagles 27, Bears 14
Pick: Eagles -9
Dallas Cowboys (-4) at Jacksonville Jaguars
Sunday, December 18th at 1 p.m. ET
The Jaguars had a big upset win over the Titans last week and quarterback Trevor Lawrence is really finding his groove. But the Cowboys are a much better team than Tennessee, and the pass-rush is going to be a problem.
It’s also going to be tough for the Jaguars to slow down the Dallas offense. I think the Cowboys grab this one and cover the spread.
Score prediction: Cowboys 27, Jaguars 21
Pick: Cowboys -4
Kansas City Chiefs (-14) at Houston Texans
Sunday, December 18th at 1 p.m. ET
The Chiefs have the best offense in the NFL and Houston has the second-worst. The Texans did a nice job putting a scare into the Cowboys but this game is going to get ugly.
This spread is huge but I think the Chiefs will slam the gas pedal and cover it.
Score prediction: Chiefs 31, Texans 13
Pick: Chiefs -14
Detroit Lions (+1) at New York Jets
Sunday, December 18th at 1 p.m. ET
The Detroit offense is cooking with gas of late. Jared Goff is No. 6 in Total QBR and Amon-Ra St. Brown is a star. The Jets have a very good defense and Sauce Gardner could get the assignment on St. Brown, but I still think the Lions will find a way to move the ball.
The Lions make sense as a moneyline pick with such a small spread.
Score prediction: Lions 23, Jets 20
Pick: Lions +1
Pittsburgh Steelers (+3) at Carolina Panthers
Sunday, December 18th at 1 p.m. ET
This is interesting. The Panthers were left for dead weeks ago but have won two in a row and sit just a game behind the Buccaneers in the NFC South. Carolina is the slight home favorite in this matchup as Mason Rudolph might be the starting quarterback for the Steelers.
This is one of the most surprising lines to me of the week. Pittsburgh is the no-brainer choice for me on the spread and I would take the +135 moneyline odds.
Score prediction: Steelers 19, Panthers 17
Pick: Steelers +3
Atlanta Falcons (+4.5) at New Orleans Saints
Sunday, December 18th at 1 p.m. ET
It makes sense for the Falcons to take a look at Desmond Ridder but I think the rookie quarterback will be in a tough spot here against a good Saints defense. New Orleans will be able to play cautiously on offense, and I expect that eventually the Saints will be able to pull away.
Score prediction: Saints 24, Falcons 16
Pick: Saints -4.5
Arizona Cardinals (+3) at Denver Broncos
Sunday, December 18th at 4:05 p.m. ET
Russell Wilson has been terrible this season, but he’s still better than some guy named Brett Rypien (just kidding, Boise State fans, I am vaguely familiar with your ex-quarterback), and it remains to be seen who will start for the Broncos. The Cardinals will roll with Colt McCoy, but even with DeAndre Hopkins and Hollywood Brown available, it could be tough sledding against a solid Denver defense.
McCoy was sacked six times by the Patriots, a reminder that we became spoiled by Kyler Murray’s special ability to evade pass-rushers. It also reminded us how bad the Cardinals are on the offensive line, which will end up dooming Arizona in this game.
On the bright side, the Cardinals will finally do something right this season by losing this game and improving their draft position.
Score prediction: Broncos 21, Cardinals 16
Pick: Broncos -3
New England Patriots (-1) at Las Vegas Raiders
Sunday, December 18th at 4:05 p.m. ET
The Patriots have a terrible offense and a great defense. The Raiders have a solid offense and a terrible defense. I’ll take the slight underdog at home, although this game may very well turn on a random bounce of the ball.
Score prediction: Raiders 21, Patriots 20
Pick: Raiders +1
Cincinnati Bengals (-3.5) at Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Sunday, December 18th at 4:25 p.m. ET
The oddsmakers have not quite thrown in the towel on the Buccaneers, and this line is a tricky because a field-goal loss would still result in a cover.
But the Bucs offense is down bad and the Bengals are surging. I think Cincinnati will continue its impressive push with a resounding win, announcing itself as a legitimate Super Bowl contender while dealing a blow to Tampa Bay’s playoff hopes.
Score prediction: Bengals 27, Buccaneers 17
Pick: Bengals -3.5
Tennessee Titans (+3) at Los Angeles Chargers
Sunday, December 18th at 4:25 p.m. ET
The Chargers are getting healthy and Justin Herbert may have turned a corner after a mediocre start to the season. The Titans will try to play some bully ball and make this game ugly, but the Los Angeles offense may explode against a Tennessee defense that has been walloped recently.
The Chargers have been discounted as AFC contenders for awhile now but could start to change the perception with a big win here.
Score prediction: Chargers 31, Titans 20
Pick: Chargers -3
New York Giants (+4.5) at Washington Commanders
Sunday, December 18th at 8:20 p.m. ET
The Giants are clinging to the final playoff spot but they have a minus-33 point-differential. The fast start was a bit of a mirage, as expected, and a loss here would be a big blow to their postseason hopes.
I don’t think Washington is substantially better so I’ll take the Giants to cover the spread, but the Commanders should win.
Score prediction: Commanders 24, Giants 22
Pick: Giants +4.5
Los Angeles Rams (+7) at Green Bay Packers
Monday, December 19th at 8:15 p.m. ET
Will there be more Baker Mayfield magic at Lambeau? As much as I enjoyed the guy headbutting teammates he didn’t even know, the numbers suggest Mayfield remains one of the worst quarterbacks in the NFL.
We will always have his debut win in Los Angeles, but I think this one gets ugly fast.
Score prediction: Packers 27, Rams 14
Pick: Packers -7
Last week’s record: 7-6
Overall: 110-92-6
